Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T05:51:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AD 0xad76…c715 weather 731 markets active 0h ago coverage 40d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 40d only
✗ bot/MM pace (72 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3,954 (-2%) realized −$3,944 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate89%650W / 80L
Whale WR98%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$235per market
Trades / day71.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2,231now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days+$61
14 days+$94
30 days−$2,312
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 89% −$2,188
crypto 11% −$611
other 0% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (72 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 338 -3.5% -12.7% 79% 18% -11.1%
≤90d 730 -1.9% -11.3% 89% 9% -11.1%
all 730 -1.9% -11.3% 89% 9% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover71.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.3% 9% -11.1%
10% ← realistic here -19.8% 6% -19.6%
15% -27.5% 3% -27.3%
20% -34.6% 2% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 98% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$48 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$2,231
Realized−$3,944
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses650 / 80
Whale WR (big bets)98%
Open positions7
Markets (closed)730 / 731
History coverage40d ⚠
Avg bet$235
Trades / day71.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 730 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 22? No 100¢ 100¢ $2,226 $2,229 +$4 (+0%)
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$2 (-68%)
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-48%)
Will AppLovin acquire TikTok? Yes 19¢ 1¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-97%)
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-6%)
Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Yes 21¢ 1¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-95%)
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-64%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 22? Jun 22 $299 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C or below on June 22? Jun 21 $1,244 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 21? Jun 21 $1,697 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 21? Jun 21 $744 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 21? Jun 21 $1,645 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 21? Jun 21 $638 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 21? Jun 21 $1,581 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 21? Jun 21 $2,813 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 21? Jun 21 $2,196 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 20? Jun 20 $693 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 20? Jun 20 $377 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 20? Jun 20 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 20? Jun 20 $2,355 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 20? Jun 20 $2,196 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 20? Jun 20 $231 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 20? Jun 20 $7,137 +$7 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 19? Jun 19 $2,196 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C or below on June 19? Jun 19 $93 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $2,196 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $499 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1,397 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 18? Jun 18 $155 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $2,196 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 18? Jun 17 $2,196 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2,196 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2,196 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 17? Jun 17 $272 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2,196 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2,196 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 65°F or below on June Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C or below on June 17? Jun 16 $2,196 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 76-77°F on June 16? Jun 16 $2,196 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1,044 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 15? Jun 16 $2,196 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2,595 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2,196 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2,196 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $53 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 14 $537 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $643 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 15? Jun 14 $1,197 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $1,198 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 61°F or below on June 1 Jun 14 $1,198 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1,199 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $704 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 14? Jun 13 $13 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 14? Jun 13 $343 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 14? Jun 13 $47 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $8 6m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $5 28m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $92 29m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $20 30m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $54 33m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $10 36m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $20 36m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $5 48m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $299 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $216 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $14 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $45 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $85 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $86 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $51 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $177 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $115 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $230 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $70 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $233 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $8 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,230.93 · official $2,230.93 (match) · 3500 history records