Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T03:39:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
AD 0xad76…36ad sports 143 markets active 2h ago coverage 566d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$285 (+1%) realized +$288 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate54%77W / 65L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$144per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$103est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$40
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days+$972
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% +$547
politics 7% −$339
other 3% −$57
world 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +40.3% +26.9% 60% 60% -10.3%
≤30d 27 +42.0% +28.5% 30% 30% +21.6%
≤90d 103 +2.7% -7.1% 52% 36% -13.9%
all 142 +3.8% -6.1% 54% 42% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.1% 42% -10.9%
10% -15.1% 30% -19.5%
15% -23.3% 23% -27.2%
20% -30.8% 16% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$60 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

566d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized+$288
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses77 / 65
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$103
Open positions1
Markets (closed)142 / 143
History coverage566d
Avg bet$144
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 142 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $41 −$40 -98%
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul Jun 21 $20 +$38 +188%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 20 $20 +$30 +146%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Jun 20 $30 +$20 +67%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $51 −$50 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $10 −$10 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $69 −$68 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 04 $10 −$10 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider Jun 03 $505 −$1 -0%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? Jun 03 $24 −$24 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $101 +$55 +55%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $26 −$25 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Anastasia Potapova vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 01 $40 −$40 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Learner Tien May 31 $4 −$4 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Francisco Comesana May 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Hamburg European Open: Tommy Paul vs Daniel Altmaier May 31 $9 −$9 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Karen Khachanov vs Jesper de Jong May 31 $20 −$20 -100%
Geneva Open: Mariano Navone vs Learner Tien May 31 $75 −$75 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Alex Michelsen vs Rafael Jodar May 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Casper Ruud May 31 $208 −$208 -100%
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? May 31 $15 −$14 -98%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? May 31 $33 −$32 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Alexander Zverev May 30 $4 −$4 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Tommy Paul May 29 $10 +$6 +60%
Roland Garros ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Jakub Mensik May 29 $10 +$40 +388%
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo May 28 $47 +$1,428 +3010%
Roland Garros ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Andrey Rublev May 27 $30 +$9 +31%
Hamburg European Open: Ignacio Buse vs Tommy Paul May 23 $101 +$20 +20%
Geneva Open: Casper Ruud vs Mariano Navone May 22 $152 +$73 +48%
Geneva Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Casper Ruud May 21 $100 +$12 +12%
Hamburg European Open: Ignacio Buse vs Ugo Humbert May 21 $130 +$15 +12%
Geneva Open: Mariano Navone vs Jaume Munar May 21 $136 +$49 +36%
Geneva Open: Raphael Collignon vs Casper Ruud May 20 $230 +$36 +16%
Hamburg European Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Aleksandar Kovacevic May 20 $283 −$97 -34%
Hamburg European Open: Hugo Gaston vs Karen Khachanov May 19 $101 +$30 +29%
Geneva Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Clement Tabur May 19 $101 +$40 +40%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev May 16 $582 −$43 -7%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Jiri Lehecka May 15 $10 −$3 -26%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Aleksandar Kov May 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Mariano Navone May 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Karen Khachanov vs Botic van de Zandschul May 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Karen Khachanov vs Alexander Shevchenko May 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Lorenzo Musetti vs Francisco Cerundolo May 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Alexei Popyrin May 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Alexei Popyrin vs Jakub Mensik May 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Iga Swiatek vs Elina Svitolina May 15 $101 +$31 +31%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Sorana Cirstea vs Coco Gauff May 14 $450 +$28 +6%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Andrey Rublev May 14 $433 +$17 +4%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jessica Pegula vs Iga Swiatek May 13 $386 +$46 +12%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Luciano Darderi vs Alexander Zverev May 12 $2,197 −$1,683 -77%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $41 1h
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul BUY Francisco Cerundolo 34¢ $20 3d
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula BUY Jessica Pegula 59¢ $30 4d
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 40¢ $20 4d
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Zverev 55¢ $51 4d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 8d
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Maja Chwalinska 18¢ $10 18d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev BUY Jakub Mensik 14¢ $45 19d
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska BUY Diana Shnaider 31¢ $10 20d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev BUY Jakub Mensik 24¢ $12 20d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev BUY Jakub Mensik 24¢ $12 20d
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider BUY Diana Shnaider 72¢ $303 21d
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider SELL Aryna Sabalenka 30¢ $87 21d
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider BUY Aryna Sabalenka 67¢ $202 21d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca BUY Jakub Mensik 64¢ $101 22d
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev BUY Rafael Jodar 15¢ $26 22d
Roland Garros WTA: Anastasia Potapova vs Anna Kalinskaya BUY Anastasia Potapova 71¢ $40 23d
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 24d
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 24d
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 24d
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 24d
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 24d
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 24d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? BUY No 64¢ $33 24d
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Francisco Comesana BUY Francisco Comesana 64¢ $10 25d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Learner Tien BUY Learner Tien 39¢ $4 25d
Roland Garros ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Alexander Zverev BUY Jesper de Jong 8¢ $4 25d
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Tommy Paul BUY Casper Ruud 62¢ $10 26d
Roland Garros ATP: Karen Khachanov vs Jesper de Jong BUY Karen Khachanov 49¢ $20 26d
Roland Garros ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Jakub Mensik BUY Jakub Mensik 20¢ $10 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.00 · official $7.00 (match) · 410 history records