Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T05:41:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AD
0xad75…5117
other · 41 markets active 2h ago
4.0score
+$45 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$45 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$379
Realized+$45
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses36 / 2
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)38 / 41
History coverage125d
Avg bet$374
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit54%
Chart Positions 3 History 38 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days−$40
14 days−$36
30 days−$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 13, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $180 $180 −$0 (-0%)
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 8 and June 14, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will Zelenskyy post 140-159 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 100¢ 99¢ $100 $99 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of June 8 above $8.00? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of June 8 above $2.50? Jun 12 $28 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of June 8 above $245? Jun 12 $100 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $185 +$7 +4%
Will the price of XRP be greater than $1.70 on June 10? Jun 10 $169 $0 +0%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $54 −$52 -96%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $106 +$1 +1%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 6, 2026? Jun 07 $96 +$1 +1%
Will Ted Cruz post 60-79 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $147 +$3 +2%
Will CZ post 200+ posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $36 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 120-139 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $70 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 160-179 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $23 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 140-159 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $30 $0 +0%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 4, 2026? Jun 05 $229 +$2 +1%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 3, 2026? Jun 04 $100 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.80 in May? Jun 01 $129 $0 +0%
Will Chainlink reach $14 in May? Jun 01 $94 $0 +0%
Will Chainlink dip to $2 in May? Jun 01 $200 $0 +0%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.00 in May? May 30 $410 +$7 +2%
Will CZ post 200+ posts from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 08 $415 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 03 $400 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from April 24 to May May 01 $413 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 01 $395 +$20 +5%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 01 $1,133 +$17 +2%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 13 $188 −$8 -4%
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 April 6-12? Apr 13 $949 +$3 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.80 on April 9? Apr 10 $390 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.80 on April 9? Apr 10 $559 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 March 30-April 5? Apr 06 $948 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026? Apr 05 $899 +$9 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 03 $590 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk be richest person on March 31? Apr 03 $1,098 +$15 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Mar 04 $1,100 +$10 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 February 9-15? Feb 22 $1,100 +$2 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of February 9 above $150? Feb 14 $70 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026 Feb 13 $999 +$1 +0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 7, 2026 (ET)? Feb 10 $89 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 February 2-8? Feb 09 $999 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 39% +$4
crypto 34% +$9
tech 21% +$23
politics 3% $0
world 2% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Zelenskyy post 140-159 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $100 1h
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 13, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $180 1h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 8 and June 14, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $100 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $192 46h
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of June 8 above $8.00? BUY No 100¢ $10 46h
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of June 8 above $245? BUY No 100¢ $100 46h
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of June 8 above $2.50? BUY Yes 100¢ $28 46h
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? SELL No 2¢ $2 3d
Will the price of XRP be greater than $1.70 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $169 4d
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 61¢ $33 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $185 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? BUY No 99¢ $106 5d
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 61¢ $2 5d
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 61¢ $19 5d
Will Ted Cruz post 60-79 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $147 7d
Will CZ post 120-139 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $70 7d
Will CZ post 140-159 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $30 7d
Will CZ post 160-179 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $23 7d
Will CZ post 200+ posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $36 7d
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 4, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $209 10d
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 6, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $96 10d
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 3, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $100 10d
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 4, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $20 10d
Will Chainlink dip to $2 in May? BUY No 100¢ $200 12d
Will Chainlink reach $14 in May? BUY No 100¢ $94 12d
Will XRP reach $1.80 in May? BUY No 100¢ $129 12d
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.00 in May? BUY No 98¢ $410 29d
Will CZ post 200+ posts from May 1 to May 8, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $415 37d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $400 41d
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from April 24 to May BUY No 100¢ $413 42d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -9.8% -18.4% 89% 0% -13.5%
≤30d 19 -4.4% -13.5% 95% 0% -10.7%
≤90d 32 -2.5% -11.7% 94% 0% -9.3%
all 38 -2.0% -11.3% 95% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 0% -9.3%
10% -19.8% 0% -17.9%
15% -27.6% 0% -25.9%
20% -34.7% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $378.69 · official $378.69 (match) · 118 history records