Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T01:32:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AD 0xad75…184d other 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 305d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate36%14W / 25L
Drawdown97%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 35% +$4
other 23% −$2
politics 14% +$1
crypto 11% $0
sports 10% $0
finance 4% $0
tech 2% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 11 +0.5% -9.1% 36% 0% -8.7%
≤90d 11 +0.5% -9.1% 36% 0% -8.7%
all 39 +0.9% -8.7% 36% 3% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 3% -9.2%
10% -17.4% 3% -17.9%
15% -25.4% 3% -25.8%
20% -32.7% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.75 per $1 lost it wins $1.75
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

305d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses14 / 25
Open positions0
Markets (closed)39 / 39
History coverage305d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown97%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 39 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 22 $46 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $74 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 03 $42 +$1 +3%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 02 $25 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $47 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 01 $49 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 01 $40 +$3 +6%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 31 $2 $0 -4%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 29 $39 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 29 $13 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 27 $39 $0 +1%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 25 $26 −$3 -13%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 13 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 19 $12 $0 +1%
Will Curtis Sliwa win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $7 $0 +4%
Will Charlie Kirk be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Oct 23 $23 $0 +0%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Oct 23 $6 $0 +2%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Oct 21 $4 +$2 +40%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 13 $9 $0 +6%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025? Oct 08 $7 $0 -2%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 04 $9 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 04 $10 $0 -1%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 04 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 02 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 28 $59 $0 -0%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Sep 28 $29 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $103K in September? Sep 27 $35 $0 +1%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 27 $8 $0 +0%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 27 $30 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Sep 27 $35 $0 -1%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Sep 25 $35 $0 +0%
US x Venezuela military engagement by September 30? Sep 24 $35 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 24 $35 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $150 in September? Sep 24 $36 $0 -1%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 24 $38 +$1 +1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 24 $1 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31? Aug 23 $33 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with Pope Leo in August? Aug 22 $2 $0 -8%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 22 $36 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $46 1h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $46 1h
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 22¢ $12 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 22¢ $11 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 22¢ $10 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $35 19d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 72¢ $34 19d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 72¢ $9 19d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 70¢ $42 20d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL Yes 19¢ $18 20d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL Yes 19¢ $8 20d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 19¢ $25 20d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $17 20d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $29 20d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $47 20d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 40¢ $5 21d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 40¢ $5 21d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 66¢ $42 21d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 62¢ $2 21d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 62¢ $22 21d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 62¢ $15 21d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $18 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $26 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $44 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $40 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $11 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $28 24d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $39 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 122 history records