Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:47:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
AD 0xad73…e893 crypto 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$99 (+9%) realized +$99 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate60%18W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day34.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$64
other 4% +$24
sports 1% +$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -6.5% -15.4% 60% 37% -10.7%
≤30d 30 -6.5% -15.4% 60% 37% -10.7%
≤90d 30 -6.5% -15.4% 60% 37% -10.7%
all 30 -6.5% -15.4% 60% 37% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.4% 37% -10.7%
10% ← realistic here -23.5% 27% -19.2%
15% -30.9% 27% -27.0%
20% -37.7% 20% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +27% → late -40% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$14 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$99
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses18 / 12
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)30 / 30
History coverage2d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day34.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 30 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 21 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 21 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 21 $52 −$22 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 21 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 21 $62 −$18 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 21 $102 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 21 $106 −$3 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 21 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 21 $78 +$30 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 21 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 21 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 21 $128 −$25 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 21 $50 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 21 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 21 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$17 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 21 $25 +$13 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$14 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 21 $25 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 21 $31 +$6 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 21 $25 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 21 $15 −$9 -61%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 +$28 +276%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $35 +$17 +48%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$7 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Down 59¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $26 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Down 55¢ $18 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $25 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Down 72¢ $25 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $26 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $26 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $26 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Up 68¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Up 71¢ $90 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $102 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $30 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $25 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $26 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 87 history records