Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:28:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AD 0xad70…036b sports 1371 markets active 4h ago coverage 235d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$110 (-2%) realized −$16 · open −$94
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate84%949W / 180L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day6.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$1,663now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$9
14 days−$42
30 days−$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 31% −$11
tech 23% −$46
sports 19% +$7
crypto 19% −$48
politics 4% $0
world 1% −$5
weather 1% $0
culture 1% +$3
finance 0% +$2
economics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 120 -0.9% -10.3% 82% 37% -11.9%
≤30d 233 -2.9% -12.2% 83% 33% -12.0%
≤90d 611 -5.4% -14.4% 82% 31% -13.4%
all 1129 -0.9% -10.3% 84% 37% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 37% -9.6%
10% -18.9% 20% -18.3%
15% -26.7% 11% -26.2%
20% -33.9% 6% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

235d coverage
Net worth$1,663
Realized−$16
Unrealized−$94
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses949 / 180
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions242
Markets (closed)1129 / 1371
History coverage235d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day6.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 242 History 1129 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? No 88¢ 82¢ $101 $94 −$7 (-7%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? No 90¢ 92¢ $55 $56 +$1 (+2%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026? No 84¢ 88¢ $40 $42 +$2 (+5%)
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $184 in June? No 89¢ 90¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+1%)
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $345 in June? No 94¢ 92¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-2%)
Will Saudi Arabia win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 97¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+0%)
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $168 in June? No 94¢ 97¢ $32 $33 +$1 (+3%)
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $320 in June? No 97¢ 97¢ $32 $32 +$0 (+0%)
Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 98¢ $28 $30 +$2 (+7%)
Will Uzbekistan win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 97¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Tunisia win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 99¢ $28 $29 +$1 (+5%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will New Zealand win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 97¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 99¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+7%)
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $176 in June? No 90¢ 95¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+6%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,400 by end of June? No 96¢ 99¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $65 in June? No 96¢ 98¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? No 97¢ 99¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will Panama win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 99¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? No 98¢ 97¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? No 97¢ 96¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 96¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? No 78¢ 60¢ $25 $19 −$6 (-23%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 77¢ 81¢ $18 $19 +$1 (+5%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? No 97¢ 91¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2 +$2 +109%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 3 Panama? Jun 18 $3 $0 +2%
Spread: Panama (-1.5) Jun 18 $3 $0 +11%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $3 $0 +11%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 +$2 +73%
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 17 $1 −$1 -99%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $3 $0 +8%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $3 $0 +3%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 $0 +5%
Will Harry Kane score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $2 $0 +8%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $3 +$1 +21%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $1 +$2 +172%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $2 $0 +11%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $3 $0 +5%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $3 $0 +2%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $3 $0 +16%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $2 +$1 +27%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $2 $0 +8%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $3 $0 +2%
Lionel Messi: 3+ goals Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 +$1 +34%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 2 Jordan? Jun 17 $3 $0 +2%
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $4 $0 +4%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $2 +$1 +26%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2 $0 +3%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $2 $0 +17%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $2 +$1 +26%
Spread: Jordan (-1.5) Jun 17 $3 $0 +3%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $3 $0 +5%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $3 +$1 +42%
Will Lionel Messi score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $2 $0 +16%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2 $0 +4%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $1 $0 +3%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $2 $0 +4%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $2 $0 +14%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $2 $0 +13%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $3 $0 +6%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1 $0 +34%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 $0 +2%
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? Jun 17 $7 +$1 +8%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2 $0 -3%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $3 +$1 +23%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $2 $0 +23%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $2 $0 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 1 Colombia? BUY No 92¢ $2 3h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 0 Colombia? BUY No 96¢ $2 3h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 2 Colombia? BUY No 97¢ $2 3h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 73¢ $2 4h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 2.5 BUY Under 98¢ $3 4h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $3 4h
Spread: Uzbekistan (-1.5) BUY Colombia 98¢ $5 4h
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 72¢ $1 4h
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 78¢ $1 4h
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 3 Panama? BUY No 98¢ $3 4h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $3 4h
Spread: Panama (-1.5) BUY Ghana 90¢ $3 4h
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026- BUY No 94¢ $3 12h
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Milwaukee Bucks in 2026-27? BUY No 96¢ $3 12h
World Cup Goals H2H: Yamal vs. Mbappe BUY Mbappe 92¢ $3 12h
Will Türkiye (22) be the highest-ranked team eliminated in the 2026 FI BUY Yes 58¢ $1 12h
Will Saudi Arabia go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? BUY No 94¢ $2 12h
Will Argentina go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? BUY Yes 89¢ $3 18h
Will Uzbekistan go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? BUY No 93¢ $3 18h
Will Panama go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? BUY No 95¢ $3 18h
Will DR Congo go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? BUY No 95¢ $3 18h
Will Spain go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? BUY Yes 82¢ $3 18h
Will Brazil go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? BUY Yes 86¢ $3 18h
World Cup: Scoreless Team? BUY Yes 73¢ $3 18h
Will Florian Wirtz score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $3 18h
Will Vinicius Jr. score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $2 18h
Will Erling Haaland score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $3 18h
Will Kylian Mbappe score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 87¢ $2 18h
Will Kylian Mbappe score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 95¢ $3 18h
Will Neymar score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $3 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,662.65 · official $1,662.67 (match) · 2951 history records