Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:10:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AD 0xad70…40f6 other 51 markets active 2d ago coverage 449d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate39%20W / 31L
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% $0
other 31% +$1
politics 12% $0
crypto 3% −$1
weather 3% $0
tech 3% $0
sports 2% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.4% -9.9% 14% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 13 -1.0% -10.5% 8% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 13 -1.0% -10.5% 8% 0% -9.7%
all 51 -1.1% -10.5% 39% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 0% -9.5%
10% -19.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.9% 0% -26.0%
20% -34.1% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

449d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses20 / 31
Open positions0
Markets (closed)51 / 51
History coverage449d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 51 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $2 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $24 $0 -2%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $7 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $53 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 10 $3 $0 -2%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 10 $39 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $42 $0 -1%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $3 $0 -6%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $40 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $4 $0 -4%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $36 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $44 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Dec 29 $14 $0 -2%
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 27 $13 $0 -0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 05 $12 $0 +4%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Jun 02 $12 $0 -0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before June? May 31 $11 +$1 +9%
Will Solana dip to $130 in May? May 28 $11 $0 -0%
Will Karol Nawrocki win by over 8%? May 28 $10 $0 +2%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 25 $1 $0 -5%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? May 24 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? May 22 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? May 22 $21 $0 +0%
Will Kylian Mbappe win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 17 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? May 17 $11 $0 +0%
Will Tim Stokely buy TikTok before July? May 16 $11 $0 -1%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 15 $20 $0 -0%
Will Luís Montenegro be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the May 14 $11 $0 -0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? May 13 $12 $0 +0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2025? May 11 $11 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 71°F or below on May May 11 $11 $0 +0%
Will Aston Villa finish in the top 4 of EPL? May 10 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? May 09 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 09 $11 $0 -0%
Will federal spending decrease by $750b-1t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025 May 08 $11 $0 +0%
Will Matteo Zuppi be the next pope? May 07 $11 $0 -1%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? May 07 $11 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on May 31? May 07 $11 $0 +1%
Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope? May 07 $20 $0 +1%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? May 06 $9 $0 -1%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? May 05 $12 $0 +0%
Will Mark Carney lose his seat? Apr 30 $9 +$1 +6%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 25 $2 $0 +1%
Will Christian Braun win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved? Apr 22 $9 $0 +1%
Will Marcela-Lavinia Șandru advance to the Romanian Presidential Elect Apr 20 $9 $0 +0%
Will Na Kyung-won be the People's Power Party candidate for president? Apr 19 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? Mar 29 $12 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by March 31? Mar 25 $1 −$1 -58%
Megaquake in March? Mar 24 $13 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes $2 36h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes $2 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $40 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $40 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $24 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $24 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 35¢ $4 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 35¢ $3 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $7 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $44 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $44 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $0 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $2 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $2 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $2 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $2 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $9 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $0 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $0 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $0 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $1 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $0 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $0 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $0 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $3 6d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $39 6d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $39 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $1 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $2 7d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $3 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 168 history records