Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:36:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AD 0xad6c…bf66 politics 35 markets active 2h ago coverage 318d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate26%9W / 25L
Drawdown80%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 33% −$2
politics 25% −$2
other 12% +$4
crypto 11% $0
sports 10% $0
tech 5% $0
economics 2% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -13.4% -21.6% 0% 0% -16.2%
≤30d 8 -3.5% -12.7% 38% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 8 -3.5% -12.7% 38% 0% -10.2%
all 34 +0.3% -9.2% 26% 3% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 3% -9.4%
10% -17.9% 3% -18.0%
15% -25.9% 3% -26.0%
20% -33.1% 3% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.06 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

318d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses9 / 25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)34 / 35
History coverage318d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown80%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 87¢ 85¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $25 −$3 -12%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $2 −$1 -25%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $32 −$1 -2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 26 $31 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 25 $31 +$1 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 25 $31 $0 -2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 25 $31 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $21 +$2 +9%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jan 30 $2 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Oct 05 $50 +$2 +4%
South Korea First Lady Keon-hee arrested in 2025? Aug 15 $4 +$3 +62%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? Aug 10 $2 $0 +10%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Aug 10 $1 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 National League Championship? Aug 10 $1 $0 -7%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 09 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 08 $12 $0 -0%
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 08 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 08 $56 $0 +0%
Will Vlad Gheorghe be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 07 $24 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 07 $36 $0 -1%
Will GPT-5 be released by August 10? Aug 07 $36 $0 -1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 06 $14 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 06 $8 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in August? Aug 06 $35 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 05 $4 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in August? Aug 05 $46 $0 +1%
Will Trump announce Judy Shelton as next Fed Chair in 2025? Aug 05 $11 $0 -1%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 05 $37 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 05 $15 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 05 $39 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 04 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Aug 04 $16 $0 -0%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 04 $5 −$1 -26%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Aug 04 $14 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $29 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $30 3h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 28¢ $22 10h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 32¢ $4 12h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 32¢ $20 12h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 17h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 18h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $32 24h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $32 26h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $31 23d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $31 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 46¢ $32 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 44¢ $9 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 44¢ $22 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 61¢ $30 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 62¢ $31 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 96¢ $31 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 96¢ $31 24d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 49¢ $1 25d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 49¢ $22 25d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 45¢ $21 25d
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 312d
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 312d
South Korea First Lady Keon-hee arrested in 2025? SELL No 4¢ $1 312d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 National League Championship? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 312d
South Korea First Lady Keon-hee arrested in 2025? SELL No 4¢ $1 312d
South Korea First Lady Keon-hee arrested in 2025? SELL No 4¢ $3 312d
South Korea First Lady Keon-hee arrested in 2025? SELL No 4¢ $0 312d
South Korea First Lady Keon-hee arrested in 2025? SELL No 4¢ $2 312d
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 312d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.85 · official $0.85 (match) · 128 history records