Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:58:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

AD 0xad6a…6763 other 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 58d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$19 (+7%) realized +$19 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +71% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +55% what you keep after slip

Net edge+55%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate67%2W / 1L

Drawdown17%max

Avg bet$64per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit75%portable

Net worth$114now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 58d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)+54.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+3.2%	-6.6%	50%	0%	-11.2%
≤30d	2	+3.2%	-6.6%	50%	0%	-11.2%
≤90d	3	+70.9%	+54.6%	67%	33%	+0.5%
all	3	+70.9%	+54.6%	67%	33%	+0.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+54.6%	33%	+0.5%
10%	+39.8%	33%	-9.1%
15%	+26.3%	33%	-17.9%
20%	+13.9%	33%	-25.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 95% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +11% too few recent

Fragile wins

50% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +71% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$9 vs −$3 · ×2.89 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×5.77 per $1 lost it wins $5.77

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage

Net worth$114

Realized+$19

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses2 / 1

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)3 / 4

History coverage58d

Avg bet$64

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown17%

Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	18¢	18¢	$114	$114	−$0 (-0%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Jun 18	$121	−$3	-3%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	Jun 16	$9	+$1	+9%
UFC Fight Night: Joselyne Edwards vs. Norma Dumont (Women's Bantamweig	Apr 26	$9	+$18	+206%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	18¢	$117	1h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	SELL Yes	81¢	$118	1h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	BUY Yes	82¢	$121	2d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	BUY No	92¢	$9	57d
UFC Fight Night: Joselyne Edwards vs. Norma Dumont (Women's Bantamweig	BUY Joselyne Edwards	32¢	$9	57d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $114.16 · official $114.16 (match) · 7 history records