Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:16:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AD 0xad68…8b94 other 253 markets active 1h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$74 (-0%) realized −$74 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%18W / 234L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$229per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$65now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$15
14 days−$26
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$42
sports 24% −$20
politics 8% −$1
culture 6% −$7
crypto 6% −$3
economics 5% −$5
world 4% −$3
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 67 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 182 -0.1% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
all 252 -0.1% -9.7% 7% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$65
Realized−$74
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses18 / 234
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)252 / 253
History coverage137d
Avg bet$229
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 252 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? No 99¢ 99¢ $65 $65 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $203 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $423 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $368 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $132 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $230 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $8 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 16 $346 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $736 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $592 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $355 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $670 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $294 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $597 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $67 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $360 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $217 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $725 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $68 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $375 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $387 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $376 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $244 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $453 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 11 $788 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $147 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 10 $199 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $668 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $144 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $401 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 10 $272 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $808 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $565 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $489 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $524 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 08 $270 +$1 +0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $257 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 07 $72 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $518 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $291 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 05 $557 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $249 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $463 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $538 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $402 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $516 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $176 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $760 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $689 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 01 $482 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 29 $22 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $65 1h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $65 5h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $65 6h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $65 9h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $66 10h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $2 15h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $2 17h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $66 19h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $66 21h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $66 25h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $66 26h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $8 31h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $8 33h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $66 34h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $66 36h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $66 37h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $66 38h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $66 40h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $66 41h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $66 43h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $66 44h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $66 46h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $66 2d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $66 2d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $66 2d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $66 2d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $66 2d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $66 2d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $66 2d
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $66 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65.29 · official $65.29 (match) · 1386 history records