Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:44:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
AD 0xad68…f7b3 world 29 markets active 2h ago coverage 456d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$13 (+2%) realized +$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate64%18W / 10L
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 75% +$14
other 18% −$1
politics 3% $0
crypto 2% +$1
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +2.6% -7.2% 40% 20% -9.4%
≤30d 13 +4.4% -5.5% 69% 23% -7.6%
≤90d 19 +3.1% -6.8% 63% 16% -7.8%
all 28 +2.5% -7.3% 64% 11% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 11% -7.9%
10% -16.2% 0% -16.7%
15% -24.3% 0% -24.8%
20% -31.7% 0% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×3.1 per $1 lost it wins $3.1
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

456d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized+$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses18 / 10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)28 / 29
History coverage456d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 76¢ 76¢ $36 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 21 $60 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $79 +$3 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $57 −$3 -5%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $47 $0 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $6 +$1 +16%
Will Alberta join the US? May 27 $7 $0 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $55 +$3 +6%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $5 $0 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 25 $28 +$4 +15%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 25 $44 +$3 +7%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 25 $103 −$2 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $16 +$2 +12%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 24 $23 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 23 $4 $0 -6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 22 $2 $0 -5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 22 $9 +$1 +7%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 21 $3 $0 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 20 $42 +$1 +2%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 19 $43 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 14 $2 $0 +1%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jun 26 $10 $0 -1%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2800 on June 3? Jun 04 $1 $0 +1%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on May 31? May 18 $11 $0 +0%
Will Susan Crawford win by 10% or more? May 17 $12 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Apr 01 $2 $0 +6%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2025 President’s Trophy? Mar 28 $12 $0 -3%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 26 $14 $0 +0%
Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin March 18-24? Mar 25 $14 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $36 1h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 95¢ $60 28h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 95¢ $60 28h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 54¢ $29 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 54¢ $25 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 57¢ $5 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 57¢ $1 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 57¢ $52 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $33 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $21 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $20 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $35 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $7 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $18 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $12 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $9 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $32 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $15 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $7 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $6 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $23 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $20 4d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 26d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 26d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 26d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 26d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 8¢ $13 27d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.48 · official $35.48 (match) · 98 history records