Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:46:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AD 0xad65…8c6b world 82 markets active 13h ago coverage 161d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$172 (+35%) realized +$174 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate35%23W / 43L
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$105
7 days−$95
14 days−$100
30 days−$77
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 73% −$77
other 24% +$235
politics 2% −$10
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -14.3% -22.5% 26% 24% -50.2%
≤30d 60 -2.7% -12.0% 37% 32% -35.5%
≤90d 66 -6.4% -15.3% 35% 30% +26.1%
all 66 -6.4% -15.3% 35% 30% +26.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.3% 30% +26.1%
10% -23.4% 27% +14.0%
15% -30.8% 26% +3.0%
20% -37.6% 24% -7.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 81% · top 2 86% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +39% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +39% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$3 · ×3.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.0 per $1 lost it wins $2.0
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

161d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized+$174
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses23 / 43
Open positions16
Markets (closed)66 / 82
History coverage161d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by June 30? No 48¢ 62¢ $25 $33 +$8 (+30%)
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+2%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No 28¢ 16¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-41%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 21¢ 14¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-31%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-9%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+100%)
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 50¢ 40¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-19%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 14¢ 8¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-47%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Iran nuclear test before 2027? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-28%)
Will Oman sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? Yes 14¢ 9¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-36%)
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Yes 35¢ 10¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-70%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-70%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Yes 34¢ 3¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-90%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $1 $0 -43%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 18 $1 $0 -15%
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -76%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -85%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -83%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 15? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -99%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Jun 18 $8 −$6 -74%
Will Pakistan sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? Jun 18 $98 −$73 -74%
Will USD fall to 1.6M Iranian rials by June 30? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will USD fall to 1.7M Iranian rials by June 30? Jun 17 $11 −$2 -16%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 17 $10 −$4 -42%
Will USD be between 1.6M and 1.7M Iranian rials on June 30? Jun 17 $1 $0 -16%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will USD reach 1.8M Iranian rials by June 30? Jun 16 $3 $0 -16%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 +$2 +150%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 +$3 +162%
Will USD reach 1.9M Iranian rials by June 30? Jun 15 $19 −$2 -13%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $5 +$8 +156%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +194%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +122%
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? Jun 14 $1 $0 -26%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $1 +$1 +56%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 +$2 +188%
Will USD reach 2.0M Iranian rials by June 30? Jun 13 $11 +$1 +10%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 12 $2 $0 -0%
Will USD be at least 2.0M Iranian rials on June 30? Jun 12 $6 −$3 -44%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $7 −$1 -14%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $5 +$6 +122%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 07 $1 $0 +9%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 04 $1 $0 +15%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 03 $1 $0 +41%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -81%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $2 +$1 +56%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $1 $0 +13%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? May 29 $2 +$2 +115%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 12h
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 12h
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 12h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 24¢ $1 12h
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 12h
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 12h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 12h
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 15? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 12h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 12h
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 12h
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 12h
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 12h
Will Oman sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 15h
Will Pakistan sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? BUY No 4¢ $1 15h
Iran leadership change by December 31? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 15h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 16¢ $1 15h
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 15h
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 15h
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $9 15h
Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by June 30? BUY No 42¢ $5 17h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 50¢ $2 17h
Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by June 30? BUY No 41¢ $10 17h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 25h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 11¢ $1 25h
Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by June 30? BUY No 62¢ $10 32h
Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by June 30? SELL Yes 39¢ $6 32h
Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by June 30? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 34h
Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by June 30? BUY Yes 43¢ $5 34h
Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by June 30? SELL No 57¢ $7 34h
Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by June 30? BUY No 57¢ $2 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.31 · official $55.36 (match) · 242 history records