Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:58:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AD 0xad64…9e67 crypto 345 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d only
✗ bot/MM pace (2662 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,187 (-15%) realized −$1,188 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -56% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -66% what you keep after slip
Net edge-66%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate24%193W / 626L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day2662.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$68now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$301
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (2662 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-60.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 819 -56.1% -60.3% 24% 15% -32.8%
≤30d 819 -56.1% -60.3% 24% 15% -32.8%
≤90d 819 -56.1% -60.3% 24% 15% -32.8%
all 819 -56.1% -60.3% 24% 15% -32.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2662.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -60.3% 15% -32.8%
10% ← realistic here -64.1% 10% -39.2%
15% -67.6% 6% -45.1%
20% -70.8% 5% -50.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -56% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -97% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
9.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$6 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$68
Realized−$1,188
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses193 / 626
Open positions2
Markets (closed)819 / 345
History coverage1d ⚠
Avg bet$23
Trades / day2662.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 819 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Up 50¢ 40¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-21%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Down 49¢ 60¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+23%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Down 49¢ 50¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 493 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$10 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 +100%
BNB Up or Down - April 11, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
BNB Up or Down - April 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 11, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 11, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
BNB Up or Down - April 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 11, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 10, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 18, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 11, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $0 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $0 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $0 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 24m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.50 · official $66.27 · 3500 history records