Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:10:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
AD 0xad64…2f33 sports 105 markets active 2h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$13,362 (-21%) realized −$12,863 · open −$499
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate45%46W / 56L
Whale WR27%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$607per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$1,089est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4,407now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$694
7 days−$14,286
14 days−$15,498
30 days−$13,271
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$13,731
crypto 3% −$520
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-20.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -41.9% -47.4% 20% 20% -50.5%
≤30d 52 -22.4% -29.8% 31% 31% -30.7%
≤90d 72 -19.3% -27.0% 32% 32% -30.6%
all 102 -12.5% -20.9% 45% 41% -30.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.9% 41% -30.8%
10% -28.4% 33% -37.4%
15% -35.3% 30% -43.4%
20% -41.7% 27% -49.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 27% (≥$1,004) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$571 vs −$715 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$4,407
Realized−$12,863
Unrealized−$499
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses46 / 56
Whale WR (big bets)27%
Est. fees paid−$1,089
Open positions3
Markets (closed)102 / 105
History coverage116d
Avg bet$607
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 102 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Atlanta Braves 40¢ 40¢ $2,000 $1,991 −$9 (-0%)
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Milwaukee Brewers 39¢ 38¢ $2,000 $1,974 −$26 (-1%)
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Atlanta Braves 41¢ 20¢ $907 $442 −$464 (-51%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 18 $2,038 +$3,457 +170%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 17 $2,035 −$2,000 -98%
Spread: France (-1.5) AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $102 +$237 +232%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 17 $1,020 −$1,000 -98%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 16 $2,033 −$2,001 -98%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 16 $2,026 −$2,000 -99%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 14 $1,016 −$1,016 -100%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 14 $1,017 −$1,017 -100%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 14 $1,018 −$1,018 -100%
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) Jun 14 $1,019 −$1,019 -100%
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) Jun 14 $1,020 −$1,020 -100%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) Jun 14 $1,020 −$1,020 -100%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 14 $2,031 −$2,031 -100%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 14 $2,033 −$2,033 -100%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 14 $2,034 −$2,034 -100%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 14 $2,033 −$2,033 -100%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 14 $2,020 −$2,020 -100%
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) Jun 14 $2,038 −$2,038 -100%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 14 $2,028 +$3,953 +195%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 13 $2,038 +$3,368 +165%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 08 $44 −$1 -2%
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) Jun 07 $1,018 +$1,525 +150%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 06 $1,019 +$1,777 +174%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 06 $763 −$763 -100%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 06 $763 −$763 -100%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 06 $764 −$764 -100%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 06 $1,004 −$1,004 -100%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 06 $1,006 −$1,006 -100%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 06 $1,017 −$1,017 -100%
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) Jun 06 $2,034 −$2,034 -100%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 06 $2,049 +$2,837 +138%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 04 $1,018 +$1,468 +144%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 03 $762 +$904 +119%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 02 $764 +$1,191 +156%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 01 $763 −$763 -100%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 01 $764 −$764 -100%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 01 $761 +$768 +101%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) May 31 $762 +$897 +118%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) May 30 $762 +$868 +114%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) May 29 $254 −$254 -100%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) May 29 $254 −$254 -100%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) May 29 $255 −$255 -100%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) May 29 $256 −$256 -100%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) May 29 $763 −$763 -100%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) May 29 $764 −$764 -100%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) May 29 $764 −$764 -100%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) May 29 $764 −$764 -100%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) May 28 $763 +$942 +124%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) May 27 $763 +$983 +129%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) May 26 $255 −$255 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 40¢ $2,036 1h
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) BUY Milwaukee Brewers 39¢ $2,037 1h
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) BUY Milwaukee Brewers 36¢ $2,038 34h
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 41¢ $2,035 34h
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) BUY Tampa Bay Rays 33¢ $1,020 38h
Spread: France (-1.5) AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY 29¢ $102 47h
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 43¢ $221 2d
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 43¢ $2 2d
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 43¢ $1 2d
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 43¢ $7 2d
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 42¢ $1,523 2d
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 42¢ $1 2d
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 42¢ $1 2d
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 42¢ $1 2d
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 42¢ $6 2d
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 42¢ $2 2d
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 42¢ $6 2d
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 42¢ $1 2d
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 42¢ $118 2d
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 42¢ $2 2d
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) BUY Milwaukee Brewers 41¢ $2 2d
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) BUY Milwaukee Brewers 41¢ $557 2d
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) BUY Milwaukee Brewers 41¢ $2 2d
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) BUY Milwaukee Brewers 41¢ $1,464 2d
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 42¢ $142 2d
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) SELL Atlanta Braves 41¢ $1 3d
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) SELL Atlanta Braves 41¢ $0 3d
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) SELL Atlanta Braves 41¢ $84 3d
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) SELL Atlanta Braves 41¢ $3 3d
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) SELL Atlanta Braves 41¢ $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,407.49 · official $4,418.55 (match) · 333 history records