Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:15:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AD 0xad63…0e0c world 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 279d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate40%14W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% +$1
politics 27% $0
other 20% $0
sports 5% $0
crypto 3% $0
weather 2% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +1.4% -8.3% 50% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 14 +0.5% -9.1% 36% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 14 +0.5% -9.1% 36% 0% -9.3%
all 35 +0.9% -8.7% 40% 3% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 3% -9.5%
10% -17.4% 3% -18.1%
15% -25.4% 0% -26.0%
20% -32.7% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 70% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

279d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses14 / 21
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage279d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 86¢ 86¢ $28 $29 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $3 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $3 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $3 $0 +4%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $98 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $36 +$1 +4%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $57 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $30 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $28 $0 -2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $31 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 07 $12 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $13 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $41 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $30 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $28 $0 -1%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 01 $31 $0 -0%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Oct 01 $31 $0 -1%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Sep 28 $31 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 25 $31 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Sep 25 $31 $0 +0%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Sep 25 $32 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 76°F or higher on September Sep 22 $18 $0 +1%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 21 $15 $0 +0%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 21 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Sep 18 $31 $0 +0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 16 $1 $0 +26%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Sep 16 $24 $0 -2%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 16 $31 $0 +0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 16 $31 $0 +0%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Sep 15 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85K in September? Sep 15 $26 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 15 $6 $0 +2%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 14 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 14 $30 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 13 $30 $0 -1%
Will Eric Adams win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 13 $31 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $28 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 9h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 10h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 20h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 20h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 24h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $29 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $29 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 31¢ $11 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 27¢ $9 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $3 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $13 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $11 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $27 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $13 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $13 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 63¢ $2 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 63¢ $25 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 63¢ $27 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $30 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $30 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 43¢ $28 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $28 6d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $30 8d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $30 8d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 67¢ $15 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.55 · official $28.55 (match) · 106 history records