Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:32:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AD 0xad63…48ab other 74 markets active 2h ago coverage 155d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$190 (-3%) realized −$190 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate54%40W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$100per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23
7 days−$42
14 days−$37
30 days−$275
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$174
crypto 25% −$82
politics 9% −$10
world 7% +$3
tech 5% $0
sports 2% +$14
finance 1% $0
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -23.3% -30.6% 33% 33% -21.9%
≤30d 18 -25.4% -32.5% 50% 22% -33.6%
≤90d 62 -7.0% -15.9% 52% 16% -13.5%
all 74 -5.8% -14.8% 54% 15% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.8% 15% -12.6%
10% -23.0% 12% -20.9%
15% -30.4% 12% -28.6%
20% -37.2% 9% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
72% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$23 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

155d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$190
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses40 / 34
Open positions0
Markets (closed)74 / 74
History coverage155d
Avg bet$100
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 74 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 20 $82 −$11 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 19 $44 +$41 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 19 $16 −$16 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $52 +$9 +17%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $18 +$34 +193%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $69 −$68 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $14 −$13 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $8 −$7 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $81 +$35 +43%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $33 −$31 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $48 +$2 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $111 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 30 $12 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $97 +$3 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 24 $235 −$235 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 24 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $81 +$104 +129%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $137 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 08 $34 +$17 +51%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 08 $78 +$2 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 08 $5 $0 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian be on Vogue's Best-Dressed list? May 07 $9 +$11 +127%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 07 $89 +$1 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in May? May 07 $110 $0 -0%
Will Nebraska use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States m May 03 $63 −$1 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 02 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 02 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 02 $89 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 29 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 29 $38 +$45 +117%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $85 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $86 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $86 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C or below on April 23? Apr 26 $85 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 18 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 18 $13 +$37 +285%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 6? Apr 07 $65 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 03 $159 −$7 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 03 $230 −$20 -9%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 03 $6 $0 +0%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? Apr 02 $384 +$5 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $67,000 on March 25? Mar 26 $54 +$1 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on March 25? Mar 26 $100 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,000 on March 25? Mar 26 $100 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $47 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $44 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $16 19h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $60 19h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $52 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $69 5d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 6d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $18 6d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $14 6d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $8 6d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $33 7d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 69¢ $81 7d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $48 11d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $111 15d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $100 18d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $12 21d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $97 21d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 29d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $41 30d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $11 30d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $41 30d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $41 30d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $41 30d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $30 30d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $25 30d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $6 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 238 history records