Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:04:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
AD 0xad63…ed78 politics 151 markets active 2h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$166 (+1%) realized +$166 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate11%16W / 135L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$204per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 42% −$16
other 42% −$14
sports 8% +$195
crypto 4% −$1
tech 2% −$1
economics 1% $0
culture 1% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-1.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 6 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 109 -0.1% -9.6% 2% 0% -9.6%
all 151 +9.3% -1.1% 11% 7% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.1% 7% -9.0%
10% -10.6% 7% -17.8%
15% -19.2% 6% -25.7%
20% -27.1% 6% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +19% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$0 · ×38.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.64 per $1 lost it wins $4.64
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$166
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses16 / 135
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)151 / 151
History coverage130d
Avg bet$204
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 151 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 21 $188 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $35 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $208 −$1 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $203 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $190 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $347 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $183 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $189 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 21 $153 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $212 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $224 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 20 $151 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $204 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $164 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $217 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $153 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $205 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $539 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 16 $156 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 13 $415 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $180 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 09 $411 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $208 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? May 05 $4 $0 +1%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $162 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $187 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $536 −$1 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $180 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $517 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $191 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $794 −$1 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $207 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $166 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 01 $167 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 01 $166 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $365 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $160 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $211 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $211 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 27 $225 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $227 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 27 $197 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 26 $159 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $169 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 26 $181 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $169 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 24 $208 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $335 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 24 $171 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $163 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $27 1h
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $27 14h
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $35 22d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $35 22d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $161 22d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $161 24d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $207 24d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $208 26d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $203 28d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $203 29d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $190 29d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $190 29d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $164 29d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $164 29d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $183 30d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $183 30d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $189 30d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $189 31d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $153 31d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $153 31d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $212 31d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $212 31d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $224 31d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $224 32d
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $151 32d
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $151 32d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $204 32d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $204 33d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $164 33d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $164 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 462 history records