Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:04:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AD 0xad5f…089c other 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 449d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate57%21W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$0
14 days−$3
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 66% −$2
other 24% $0
crypto 5% $0
politics 3% $0
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.6% -10.0% 62% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 15 -0.5% -10.0% 67% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 15 -0.5% -10.0% 67% 0% -9.7%
all 37 -0.3% -9.8% 57% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

449d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses21 / 16
Open positions2
Markets (closed)37 / 39
History coverage449d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 83¢ 83¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+0%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? No 73¢ 72¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 19 $55 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $38 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $77 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $3 $0 -4%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $39 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $83 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $81 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $53 −$1 -2%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 11 $43 +$1 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 09 $39 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 08 $46 −$4 -8%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $44 $0 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $86 $0 +1%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $38 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $40 +$1 +2%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Dec 17 $2 $0 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 14 $2 $0 +1%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 27 $7 $0 +3%
Will Tom Hanks be named in Epstein files? Jun 27 $5 −$1 -15%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? May 22 $6 −$1 -12%
Will André Ventura be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the 20 May 21 $10 $0 +2%
Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 May 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $13 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2700 and $2800 on May 16? May 16 $9 +$1 +9%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 15 $11 $0 +1%
Will Robert Lewandowski win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 11 $13 $0 +0%
Will Leonardo DiCaprio be named in Epstein files? May 10 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? May 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? May 10 $12 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jun-seok win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elect May 09 $13 $0 -0%
Will federal spending decrease by $1-2t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025? May 08 $13 $0 +0%
Will another candidate win? May 08 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $150-200b in federal spending in 2025? May 08 $26 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? May 07 $11 $0 -1%
Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? May 07 $14 $0 +4%
Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 04 $14 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $35 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $43 2h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $21 11h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 13h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $0 13h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 81¢ $11 21h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 81¢ $28 21h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 80¢ $38 27h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $23 37h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $15 37h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $39 41h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $11 45h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $28 45h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $9 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $30 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $3 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $39 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $39 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $19 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $21 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $39 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 71¢ $3 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $23 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $15 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $38 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $42 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $42 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.63 · official $8.30 (match) · 145 history records