Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:46:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AD 0xad5f…1271 world 53 markets active 6h ago coverage 526d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate37%19W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% +$2
sports 33% −$11
other 11% +$1
politics 2% −$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.0% -9.5% 29% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 25 -5.2% -14.3% 36% 4% -9.5%
≤90d 36 -3.2% -12.4% 33% 3% -9.5%
all 51 -10.7% -19.2% 37% 8% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.2% 8% -9.8%
10% -26.9% 6% -18.5%
15% -34.0% 4% -26.4%
20% -40.5% 4% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

526d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses19 / 32
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)51 / 53
History coverage526d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No 73¢ 72¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 48¢ 26¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-47%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 20 $11 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $3 $0 -2%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $45 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $39 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $50 +$2 +4%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $82 −$1 -1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $88 $0 -0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 10 $45 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 10 $76 −$1 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $42 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $172 +$1 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $13 $0 -4%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $9 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $57 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $73 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $1 $0 +12%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $9 −$1 -9%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 02 $28 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $42 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 31 $42 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 30 $34 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $44 +$2 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 29 $26 −$1 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 28 $44 +$1 +3%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 27 $6 −$2 -37%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 21 $21 +$1 +6%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 19 $2 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 18 $46 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 18 $17 +$1 +4%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 15 $75 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $229 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $253 −$2 -1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $255 −$1 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 25 $15 +$1 +7%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $230 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 20 $2 $0 +1%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian Presidential election by 5-10%? May 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in his first 100 days? May 06 $3 $0 +1%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian presidential election? Feb 23 $5 $0 -3%
Will the match between Ferencvaros and Viktoria Plzen end in a draw? Feb 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Weber State vs. Montana State Feb 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Southern Mississippi vs. Arkansas State Feb 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will there be 400-500k rides on the DC metro on Jan 20? Feb 05 $4 +$1 +25%
Trump deportation executive order on Day 1? Feb 05 $4 −$4 -100%
OG Shoots vs. Easy Jan 23 $2 $0 +0%
Trump second inauguration gets more viewers than first? Jan 21 $1 +$1 +54%
Trump Cabinet confirmation on Day 1? Jan 20 $8 +$1 +7%
Trump inauguration gets more viewers than Biden's? Jan 20 $7 +$1 +8%
Will Ohio State and Texas combine for 54 or more combined points score Jan 11 $4 +$3 +75%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 22¢ $11 6h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 22¢ $11 8h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $3 31h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $3 33h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $3 40h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $29 43h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $16 43h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $45 45h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $39 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $35 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $4 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 48¢ $8 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 48¢ $8 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $46 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $44 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 93¢ $39 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $39 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $43 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $43 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 89¢ $5 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 89¢ $11 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $17 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $45 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $45 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $27 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $27 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.33 · official $2.86 (match) · 185 history records