Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:08:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AD 0xad5b…fadd world 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$63 (-6%) realized −$326 · open +$263
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate29%2W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day43.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$624now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 99% +$183
politics 1% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-27.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -20.3% -27.9% 29% 14% -30.6%
≤30d 7 -20.3% -27.9% 29% 14% -30.6%
≤90d 7 -20.3% -27.9% 29% 14% -30.6%
all 7 -20.3% -27.9% 29% 14% -30.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.9% 14% -30.6%
10% ← realistic here -34.8% 14% -37.3%
15% -41.1% 0% -43.3%
20% -46.9% 0% -48.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 83% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$16 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$624
Realized−$326
Unrealized+$263
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses2 / 5
Open positions6
Markets (closed)7 / 13
History coverage1d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day43.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Yes 24¢ 79¢ $102 $334 +$232 (+226%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Yes 73¢ 86¢ $129 $153 +$24 (+19%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $50 $57 +$7 (+14%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 37¢ 38¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+1%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? No 92¢ 92¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-0%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 81¢ 78¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 17 $63 +$1 +2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $25 −$7 -29%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 17 $13 −$8 -63%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 17 $84 −$56 -67%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 17 $100 −$7 -7%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 17 $24 −$2 -9%
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Pri Jun 16 $14 +$5 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 58¢ $25 1h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 67¢ $34 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 55¢ $17 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 2h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 86¢ $25 2h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 27¢ $30 2h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 72¢ $30 2h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $20 3h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $2 3h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $16 3h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? SELL Yes 5¢ $5 3h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 92¢ $27 4h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL Yes 20¢ $27 4h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 61¢ $84 5h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 30¢ $35 5h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 43¢ $14 6h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 43¢ $36 6h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 53¢ $16 6h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 53¢ $26 6h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 62¢ $50 6h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 46¢ $93 7h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 49¢ $9 7h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 7h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 7h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 49¢ $0 7h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 49¢ $30 7h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 50¢ $50 7h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 77¢ $93 10h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 79¢ $25 10h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 78¢ $20 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $623.75 · official $623.75 (match) · 62 history records