Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:30:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AD 0xad5a…cc3a crypto 54 markets active 5d ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$22 (+3%) realized +$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate54%29W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day38.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -10.7% -19.2% 50% 42% -21.3%
≤30d 54 -2.5% -11.8% 54% 48% -13.1%
≤90d 54 -2.5% -11.8% 54% 48% -13.1%
all 54 -2.5% -11.8% 54% 48% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.8% 48% -13.1%
10% ← realistic here -20.2% 44% -21.4%
15% -27.9% 37% -29.0%
20% -35.0% 24% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$9 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses29 / 25
Open positions0
Markets (closed)54 / 54
History coverage3d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day38.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 54 Trades
no open positions (18 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 12 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$5 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 11 $21 +$5 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 11 $11 −$10 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 11 $11 −$10 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 11 $21 −$10 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 11 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 11 $11 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 11 $42 −$4 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 11 $11 +$9 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 11 $21 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 11 $11 +$4 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$7 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 10 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 10 $11 +$7 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 10 $11 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 10 $11 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 10 $11 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 10 $11 +$10 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 10 $11 +$22 +206%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$6 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$12 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 10 $11 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 10 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 10 $21 −$10 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 10 $21 +$8 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 10 $42 −$18 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 10 $21 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$10 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 10 $21 −$5 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 10 $11 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 10 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 10 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 10 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 10 $11 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$9 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 09 $10 +$4 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 09 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 09 $21 +$8 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 09 $11 +$14 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 09 $11 −$2 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 09 $11 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 09 $10 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 09 $10 +$12 +118%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $15 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET SELL Down 51¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET SELL Down 46¢ $12 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 27¢ $16 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 23¢ $34 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 62¢ $19 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 42¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 112 history records