Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:06:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AD 0xad58…7624 weather 526 markets active 1h ago coverage 65d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 65d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,402 (-3%) realized −$2,978 · open −$424
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -51% what you keep after slip
Net edge-51%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate17%121W / 572L
Whale WR30%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$193per market
Trades / day47.9pace
Fees−$1,338est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$3,535now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,348
7 days−$3,121
14 days−$3,298
30 days−$3,510
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% −$553
other 36% −$1,263
politics 6% −$14
weather 4% −$196
crypto 0% −$4
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-42.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 415 -75.8% -78.1% 8% 4% -43.2%
≤30d 586 -45.1% -50.4% 15% 10% -16.6%
≤90d 693 -36.8% -42.8% 17% 12% -13.2%
all 693 -36.8% -42.8% 17% 12% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover47.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -42.8% 12% -13.2%
10% ← realistic here -48.3% 12% -21.5%
15% -53.3% 12% -29.1%
20% -57.9% 11% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 30% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +12% → late -85% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$12 · ×2.04 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$3,535
Realized−$2,978
Unrealized−$424
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses121 / 572
Whale WR (big bets)30%
Est. fees paid−$1,338
Open positions63
Markets (closed)693 / 526
History coverage65d ⚠
Avg bet$193
Trades / day47.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 63 History 693 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 79¢ 78¢ $158 $156 −$2 (-1%)
Will Johan Mojica be in Colombia's Starting 11? Yes 97¢ 97¢ $155 $155 −$0 (-0%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be in Portugal's Starting 11? Yes 97¢ 97¢ $149 $149 −$0 (-0%)
Will Reece James be in England's Starting 11? Yes 96¢ 93¢ $153 $148 −$5 (-3%)
Will Jordan Pickford be in England's Starting 11? Yes 97¢ 99¢ $146 $148 +$2 (+2%)
Will Elliot Anderson be in England's Starting 11? Yes 97¢ 94¢ $129 $126 −$3 (-2%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $100 $118 +$18 (+18%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $100 $115 +$15 (+15%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $100 $112 +$12 (+12%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $100 $107 +$7 (+7%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $100 $105 +$6 (+6%)
Will Nuno Mendes be in Portugal's Starting 11? Yes 97¢ 99¢ $97 $99 +$2 (+2%)
Will Germany be the highest-scoring team in Group E during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 97¢ $80 $97 +$17 (+21%)
Will Daniel Muñoz be in Colombia's Starting 11? Yes 98¢ 96¢ $98 $96 −$2 (-2%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $100 $93 −$7 (-7%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $99 $82 −$16 (-17%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $101 $82 −$19 (-18%)
Will Argentina be the highest-scoring team in Group J during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 75¢ 72¢ $85 $81 −$4 (-5%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $100 $80 −$20 (-20%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $100 $78 −$21 (-21%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $100 $78 −$22 (-22%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $99 $76 −$22 (-23%)
Will Spain be the highest-scoring team in Group H during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 87¢ 72¢ $87 $72 −$16 (-18%)
Will England be the highest-scoring team in Group L during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 76¢ 69¢ $76 $69 −$7 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 424 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on March 7? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 28°C or below on Febru Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on March 20? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on March 27? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on February 9? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C on February 7? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -2°C on February 8? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on February 23? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on March 6? Jun 17 $10 −$8 -83%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on March 27? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 5°C on February 17? Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 33°C on February 23? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on March 27? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 22°C or higher on April Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on March 14? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C on March 4? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 30°C or below on Janua Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -3°C on February 7? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C or higher on April 14? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 30°C on February 22? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C or higher on March 25? Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on March 24? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 4°C on February 16? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on March 26? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on February 21? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on March 16? Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on March 26? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on February 28? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -2°C or higher on February 6? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on March 2? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on April 8? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 4°C on February 26? Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on March 22? Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on March 5? Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 35°C or below on Febru Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on February 20? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 31°C on January 31? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -7°C on January 21? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on March 4? Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on March 25? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on March 26? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 6°C on February 6? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on March 27? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on March 26? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on April 8? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 8? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 31°C on February 13? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 33°C on February 21? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 3°C on February 9? Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on March 16? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Australia be the highest-scoring team in Group D during the Group BUY Yes 11¢ $1 40m
Will USA be the highest-scoring team in Group D during the Group Stage BUY Yes 83¢ $8 40m
Will Ivan Toney be in England's Starting 11? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will João Neves be in Portugal's Starting 11? SELL No 1¢ $1 1h
Will Noni Madueke be in England's Starting 11? SELL No 40¢ $33 2h
Will Reece James be in England's Starting 11? BUY Yes 96¢ $96 2h
Will Nico O'Reilly be in England's Starting 11? BUY Yes 94¢ $56 2h
Will Elliot Anderson be in England's Starting 11? BUY Yes 98¢ $98 2h
Will Daniel Muñoz be in Colombia's Starting 11? BUY Yes 98¢ $98 2h
Will Daniel Muñoz be in Colombia's Starting 11? SELL No 2¢ $1 2h
Will Johan Mojica be in Colombia's Starting 11? BUY Yes 97¢ $48 2h
Will Johan Mojica be in Colombia's Starting 11? BUY Yes 97¢ $58 2h
Will Bruno Fernandes be in Portugal's Starting 11? SELL No 1¢ $2 2h
Will USA be the highest-scoring team in Group D during the Group Stage BUY Yes 83¢ $38 2h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be in Portugal's Starting 11? BUY Yes 97¢ $97 2h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be in Portugal's Starting 11? SELL No 3¢ $3 2h
Will Dan Burn be in England's Starting 11? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Will Samú Costa be in Portugal's Starting 11? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 3h
Will Jordan Henderson be in England's Starting 11? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 3h
Will Gonçalo Guedes be in Portugal's Starting 11? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Will Dean Henderson be in England's Starting 11? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 3h
Will James Trafford be in England's Starting 11? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 3h
Will Argentina be the highest-scoring team in Group J during the Group SELL Yes 76¢ $76 4h
Will Dean Henderson be in England's Starting 11? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 6h
Will Rúben Neves be in Portugal's Starting 11? BUY No 96¢ $48 6h
Will Rúben Neves be in Portugal's Starting 11? BUY No 96¢ $58 6h
Will James Trafford be in England's Starting 11? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 6h
Will Kevin Castaño be in Colombia's Starting 11? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 9h
Will Juan Portilla be in Colombia's Starting 11? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 9h
Will Noni Madueke be in England's Starting 11? BUY No 30¢ $25 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,534.89 · official $3,535.28 (match) · 3500 history records