Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T06:37:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
AD 0xad57…ccf4 crypto 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,191 (+166%) realized +$2,234 · open −$43
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +168% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +124% what you keep after slip
Net edge+124%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate32%13W / 27L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day12.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$232now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% +$1,849
other 11% +$273
sports 7% +$56
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+142.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 +167.9% +142.3% 32% 30% +183.6%
≤30d 40 +167.9% +142.3% 32% 30% +183.6%
≤90d 40 +167.9% +142.3% 32% 30% +183.6%
all 40 +167.9% +142.3% 32% 30% +183.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +142.3% 30% +183.6%
10% +119.2% 30% +156.4%
15% +98.0% 30% +131.7%
20% +78.6% 28% +109.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +231% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +168% · $-wt +231% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +332% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$217 vs −$23 · ×9.36 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.68 per $1 lost it wins $4.68
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$232
Realized+$2,234
Unrealized−$43
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses13 / 27
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)40 / 44
History coverage7d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day12.0
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 26? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $140 $149 +$9 (+6%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 June 22-28? Yes 12¢ 9¢ $60 $43 −$17 (-28%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 on June 26? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $55 $28 −$27 (-49%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 on June 26? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $20 $12 −$8 (-41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum dip to $1,450 on June 25? Jun 25 $27 −$25 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $117 −$110 -94%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 on June 25? Jun 25 $53 −$50 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $74 −$69 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $53 −$50 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $25 +$375 +1528%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 25? Jun 25 $27 +$530 +1987%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $27 +$645 +2417%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 25? Jun 25 $11 −$10 -94%
Exact Score: South Africa 2 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 25 $15 −$15 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $128 +$288 +225%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Jun 24 $51 −$46 -91%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 24? Jun 24 $62 +$555 +896%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $27 −$25 -94%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 AND Switzerland vs. Canada: Jun 24 $36 +$102 +285%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 24 $16 −$16 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 24 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 24 $22 −$22 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 24 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6PM ET Jun 24 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 23? Jun 24 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 22? Jun 24 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 23? Jun 24 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,650 on June 22? Jun 24 $14 −$14 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 20? Jun 24 $0 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 24? Jun 24 $40 +$284 +711%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 20 $6 −$6 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5AM ET Jun 20 $8 −$8 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 19 $9 −$9 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 19 $7 −$7 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$2 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 19 $12 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$13 +122%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$4 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$21 +203%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$6 +114%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 3¢ $27 54m
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 8¢ $106 55m
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 3¢ $11 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 1¢ $11 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 8¢ $43 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 3¢ $21 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 1¢ $11 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 June 22-28? BUY Yes 12¢ $64 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,450 on June 25? BUY Yes 5¢ $27 10h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 8¢ $106 11h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 on June 25? BUY Yes 4¢ $53 13h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 15h
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 2¢ $27 15h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 3¢ $27 15h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 7¢ $37 16h
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 3¢ $27 16h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 25? SELL Yes 71¢ $400 16h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 25? SELL Yes 99¢ $384 16h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 25? SELL Yes 99¢ $173 16h
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 25? SELL Yes 99¢ $672 16h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 4¢ $25 19h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 2¢ $11 21h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 25? BUY Yes 3¢ $11 21h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 25? BUY Yes 4¢ $27 21h
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 4¢ $27 21h
Exact Score: South Africa 2 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 13¢ $15 28h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 64¢ $417 28h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 19¢ $128 29h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Spread: Morocco (-2.5) SELL 2¢ $5 31h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 24? BUY Yes 10¢ $27 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $231.80 · official $231.80 (match) · 105 history records