Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T01:59:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
AD 0xad57…3fed crypto 1129 markets active 0h ago coverage 27d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 27d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (103 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$27,421 (+16%) realized +$27,420 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate48%580W / 623L
Whale WR27%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$154per market
Trades / day103.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$813now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 27d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$18,324
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (103 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 340 -63.9% -67.4% 19% 19% -93.2%
≤30d 1203 -7.9% -16.6% 48% 47% -21.2%
≤90d 1203 -7.9% -16.6% 48% 47% -21.2%
all 1203 -7.9% -16.6% 48% 47% -21.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover103.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.6% 47% -21.2%
10% ← realistic here -24.6% 46% -28.8%
15% -31.9% 46% -35.7%
20% -38.6% 45% -42.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 27% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +12% → late -28% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$128 vs −$160 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$813
Realized+$27,420
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses580 / 623
Whale WR (big bets)27%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1203 / 1129
History coverage27d ⚠
Avg bet$154
Trades / day103.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1203 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Up 50¢ 52¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 495 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 24 $253 +$227 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 24 $115 +$125 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 24 $34 +$22 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 24 $0 $0 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 24 $0 $0 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 24 $0 $0 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 24 $0 $0 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 24 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 24 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 24 $120 −$120 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 24 $183 −$183 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 24 $289 −$289 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 24 $303 −$303 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 24 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 24 $152 −$152 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 24 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 24 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 24 $170 −$170 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 24 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 24 $113 −$113 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 24 $170 −$170 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 24 $110 −$110 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 24 $149 −$149 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 24 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 24 $149 −$149 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 24 $173 −$173 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 24 $325 −$325 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 24 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 24 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 24 $587 −$587 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 24 $129 −$129 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 24 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 24 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 24 $74 −$74 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 24 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 24 $245 −$245 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 24 $306 −$306 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 24 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 24 $87 −$87 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 24 $353 −$353 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 24 $657 −$657 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 24 $284 −$284 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 24 $188 −$188 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 24 $53 −$53 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $21 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $18 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $21 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $21 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $23 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $21 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $19 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $18 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $22 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $11 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $42 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $41 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $41 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $32 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $8 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $11 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $66 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $32 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $41 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $46 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $49 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $15 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $813.46 · official $826.48 · 3500 history records