Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T23:05:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AD 0xad57…2fc0 sports 109 markets active 0h ago coverage 50d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$396 (-17%) realized −$325 · open −$71
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate16%17W / 90L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$222
7 days+$71
14 days−$92
30 days−$382
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% −$646
other 44% −$106
politics 2% −$56
crypto 0% +$104
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-27.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 +6.0% -4.1% 21% 21% -2.8%
≤30d 93 -7.9% -16.7% 18% 18% -27.8%
≤90d 107 -20.0% -27.6% 16% 16% -36.3%
all 107 -20.0% -27.6% 16% 16% -36.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.6% 16% -36.3%
10% -34.5% 16% -42.4%
15% -40.9% 16% -48.0%
20% -46.7% 16% -53.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -42% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$68 vs −$20 · ×3.41 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$325
Unrealized−$71
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses17 / 90
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions2
Markets (closed)107 / 109
History coverage50d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 107 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Paraguay 24¢ 34¢ $25 $35 +$10 (+40%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 53¢ 0¢ $81 $0 −$81 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 78 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Jun 29 $50 +$47 +95%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $50 +$111 +223%
Canada leading at halftime? Jun 28 $10 −$9 -97%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $12 +$70 +584%
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $10 +$48 +476%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 28 $10 −$10 -97%
Austria leading at halftime? Jun 28 $20 +$52 +259%
Jordan vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 28 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $15 −$15 -98%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $25 −$24 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -97%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $10 −$10 -97%
Colombia leading at halftime? Jun 27 $20 −$19 -97%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 27 $20 −$19 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $15 −$15 -97%
Croatia vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $19 +$36 +188%
England leading at halftime? Jun 27 $40 −$39 -98%
Panama leading at halftime? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -97%
Ghana leading at halftime? Jun 27 $20 −$19 -97%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $30 −$29 -97%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $20 −$19 -97%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 27 $20 −$20 -98%
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $20 −$19 -97%
Uruguay vs. Spain: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $13 −$13 -97%
Uruguay vs. Spain: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $15 +$47 +312%
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? Jun 27 $15 −$15 -97%
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $10 +$41 +411%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $15 −$15 -97%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Scotland O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $15 −$15 -97%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $30 −$29 -98%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $15 −$15 -97%
DR Congo leading at halftime? Jun 24 $12 −$12 -97%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -97%
Panama leading at halftime? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Panama vs. Croatia: Panama 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $18 −$18 -97%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $30 −$29 -97%
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $19 −$19 -98%
Ghana leading at halftime? Jun 23 $20 −$19 -97%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $15 −$15 -97%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $25 −$24 -97%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $33 −$32 -97%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $40 −$10 -24%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $21 +$82 +393%
Jordan leading at halftime? Jun 23 $15 +$137 +912%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Draw at halftime? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Jordan vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $30 −$29 -97%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 23 $15 −$15 -97%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 23 $22 −$21 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Paraguay 24¢ $26 24m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 44¢ $25 53m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $58 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance SELL Brazil 100¢ $97 3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 100¢ $161 3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 30¢ $50 5h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Brazil 50¢ $50 5h
Canada leading at halftime? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 27h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 92¢ $82 43h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? SELL No 96¢ $58 43h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY No 16¢ $10 43h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 21¢ $10 43h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 13¢ $12 43h
Austria leading at halftime? SELL Yes 82¢ $72 44h
Jordan vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 11¢ $10 44h
Austria leading at halftime? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 44h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 30¢ $15 46h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 1.5 BUY Over 31¢ $25 46h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 46h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 17¢ $10 46h
Colombia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 47h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 2d
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY England 31¢ $20 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 10¢ $15 2d
Croatia vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $34 2d
Croatia vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 0.5 SELL Over 62¢ $21 2d
Croatia vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 0.5 BUY Over 27¢ $19 2d
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 30¢ $40 2d
Panama leading at halftime? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 2d
Ghana leading at halftime? BUY Yes 12¢ $20 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.31 · official $35.31 (match) · 167 history records