trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | +5.6% | -4.5% | 50% | 50% | -1.2% |
| ≤30d | 11 | -0.7% | -10.2% | 18% | 9% | -11.6% |
| ≤90d | 11 | -0.7% | -10.2% | 18% | 9% | -11.6% |
| all | 28 | -3.2% | -12.4% | 46% | 4% | -13.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -12.4% | 4% | -13.4% |
| 10% | -20.8% | 0% | -21.7% |
| 15% | -28.5% | 0% | -29.2% |
| 20% | -35.5% | 0% | -36.2% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? | No | 51¢ | 50¢ | $39 | $38 | −$1 (-3%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? | Jun 23 | $36 | +$4 | +11% |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | Jun 23 | $8 | $0 | +0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | Jun 15 | $44 | −$7 | -15% |
| US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | Jun 15 | $43 | −$2 | -5% |
| Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by | Jun 14 | $6 | $0 | -4% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Jun 14 | $47 | $0 | +0% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Jun 14 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia | Jun 13 | $37 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 12 | $31 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 12 | $43 | −$2 | -4% |
| Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 10 | $1 | $0 | +9% |
| Will Benfica win the FIFA Club World Cup? | Dec 14 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? | Dec 14 | $46 | $0 | +0% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? | Jun 01 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the next Pope be from North America? | May 09 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Will 'Michael' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? | May 08 | $21 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in May? | May 07 | $21 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Nikita Kucherov win the Hart Trophy? | May 07 | $20 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope? | May 06 | $4 | $0 | +8% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $103000 on May 9? | May 06 | $16 | $0 | +0% |
| Will federal spending decrease by $750b-1t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025 | May 06 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? | May 05 | $21 | +$1 | +4% |
| Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? | Apr 06 | $21 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Mario Grech be the next pope? | Apr 05 | $22 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Solana reach $210 in April? | Apr 05 | $21 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? | Apr 04 | $23 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in his first 100 days? | Apr 04 | $24 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Greens be part of the next German government? | Apr 03 | $23 | $0 | +0% |