Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:09:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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AD 0xad54…006a sports 568 markets active 0h ago coverage 75d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$84 (+2%) realized +$127 · open −$43
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate50%280W / 275L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day10.3pace
Fees−$54est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$194now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$95
7 days+$180
14 days+$104
30 days+$240
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% +$255
other 9% −$76
weather 6% −$139
world 2% −$10
politics 0% −$17
finance 0% −$4
crypto 0% +$12
culture 0% +$4
tech 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +16.4% +5.3% 72% 72% +9.0%
≤30d 210 +6.4% -3.7% 59% 55% -0.7%
≤90d 555 -3.8% -13.0% 50% 47% -8.0%
all 555 -3.8% -13.0% 50% 47% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 47% -8.0%
10% -21.3% 44% -16.8%
15% -28.9% 39% -24.9%
20% -35.9% 34% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$7 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$194
Realized+$127
Unrealized−$43
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses280 / 275
Est. fees paid−$54
Open positions13
Markets (closed)555 / 568
History coverage75d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day10.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 555 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros Houston Astros 52¢ 40¢ $73 $56 −$18 (-24%)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies Colorado Rockies 47¢ 46¢ $44 $42 −$1 (-3%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? Yes 62¢ 100¢ $13 $20 +$8 (+61%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins San Francisco Giants 49¢ 72¢ $14 $20 +$6 (+46%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 72¢ 94¢ $14 $18 +$4 (+31%)
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers Texas Rangers 59¢ 72¢ $15 $18 +$3 (+21%)
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Washington Nationals 54¢ 26¢ $14 $7 −$7 (-53%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Milwaukee Brewers 61¢ 18¢ $14 $4 −$10 (-70%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? Yes 16¢ 12¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-22%)
Clavicular sentenced to prison? Yes 14¢ 16¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+14%)
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 6¢ 1¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-83%)
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Chicago White Sox 48¢ 2¢ $19 $1 −$18 (-97%)
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 225 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 19 $71 +$22 +31%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 19 $41 +$35 +86%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 19 $41 +$43 +105%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 19 $41 −$40 -99%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 18 $14 +$10 +73%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $14 −$13 -99%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 18 $13 +$6 +44%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 18 $13 +$6 +46%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 18 $39 +$14 +36%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $39 +$13 +34%
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? Jun 17 $13 +$4 +31%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $13 +$11 +90%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $37 +$25 +67%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $37 +$17 +46%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $12 −$12 -98%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $6 −$6 -99%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $60 +$35 +60%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $12 +$4 +32%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $36 +$11 +31%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 17 $12 +$11 +86%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 17 $11 −$11 -98%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 16 $12 −$12 -99%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $37 −$36 -98%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $12 +$4 +32%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $31 −$31 -98%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 16 $37 +$27 +73%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $13 −$12 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $12 +$6 +46%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $36 +$23 +65%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $12 +$11 +90%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $36 −$36 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$5 +101%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $36 +$26 +73%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $12 +$12 +101%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $5 +$4 +70%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $12 +$5 +43%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $15 −$15 -99%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Ilkley: Filippo Romano vs Jack Pinnington Jones Jun 12 $8 −$8 -99%
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria Jun 12 $8 −$8 -99%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $15 +$8 +52%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $15 +$12 +79%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $15 +$12 +79%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $15 −$15 -98%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $15 −$15 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 10 $5 −$5 -99%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 47¢ $44 3m
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 52¢ $74 56m
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 59¢ $15 1h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees SELL New York Yankees 93¢ $94 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Chicago White Sox 48¢ $19 1h
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins BUY San Francisco Giants 49¢ $14 1h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 70¢ $71 1h
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Washington Nationals 54¢ $14 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 72¢ $14 5h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Milwaukee Brewers 61¢ $14 10h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 60¢ $41 24h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 53¢ $41 25h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY Chicago White Sox 48¢ $41 25h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 57¢ $14 28h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 58¢ $14 29h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 73¢ $39 2d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 68¢ $13 2d
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 69¢ $13 2d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 74¢ $39 2d
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? SELL Yes 93¢ $17 2d
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 62¢ $13 2d
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY Yes 71¢ $13 2d
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 52¢ $13 2d
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 59¢ $37 2d
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY New York Mets 68¢ $37 2d
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 49¢ $12 2d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 56¢ $6 2d
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 50¢ $11 3d
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 75¢ $12 3d
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 62¢ $60 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $194.36 · official $194.36 (match) · 1052 history records