Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T00:21:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AD
0xad53…ef24
other · 1290 markets active 0h ago
2.0score
+$7,406 +56%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$2,668 · open +$11,506
avoidriskycopy
✓ COPY-WORTHY ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$29,920
Realized+$2,668
Unrealized+$11,506
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses225 / 148
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions496
Markets (closed)373 / 1290
History coverage1d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day2556.0
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit54%
Chart Positions 496 History 373 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,668
7 days+$2,668
14 days+$2,668
30 days+$2,668
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Xavier Edwards: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Over 1¢ 50¢ $15 $755 +$740 (+4895%)
Jakob Marsee: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Over 1¢ 49¢ $15 $735 +$720 (+4800%)
Mauricio Dubón: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Over 1¢ 50¢ $9 $450 +$441 (+4895%)
Jared Triolo: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Over 1¢ 50¢ $8 $400 +$392 (+4900%)
Ildemaro Vargas: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Over 1¢ 50¢ $8 $400 +$392 (+4900%)
Luis Rengifo: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Over 1¢ 50¢ $7 $350 +$343 (+4904%)
Jorge Mateo: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Over 1¢ 50¢ $6 $300 +$294 (+4900%)
Trea Turner: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Over 1¢ 50¢ $6 $300 +$294 (+4900%)
Esteury Ruiz: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Over 1¢ 41¢ $6 $247 +$241 (+4020%)
Solana all time high by June 30, 2026? No 88¢ 100¢ $176 $199 +$23 (+13%)
Joe Mack: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Over 1¢ 49¢ $4 $196 +$192 (+4800%)
Oswald Peraza: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Over 1¢ 50¢ $4 $165 +$161 (+4025%)
Carson Benge: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Over 1¢ 50¢ $3 $150 +$147 (+4900%)
Perena FDV above $200M one day after launch? No 63¢ 56¢ $166 $149 −$17 (-10%)
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? No 9¢ 68¢ $20 $145 +$125 (+622%)
Next Token Sale on Coinbase by August 31, 2026? Yes 9¢ 28¢ $45 $137 +$92 (+206%)
Will Scott Bottoms win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary election? No 85¢ 91¢ $125 $134 +$9 (+7%)
Will Larry Page be 2nd richest person on December 31? Yes 20¢ 38¢ $70 $134 +$63 (+90%)
Will LeBron James announce a Presidential run before 2027? No 96¢ 98¢ $132 $134 +$2 (+1%)
Will the Democrats win the Georgia Senate race in 2026? Yes 80¢ 85¢ $123 $131 +$8 (+6%)
Will Elon Musk tweet "Hyperliquid" by June 30, 2026? No 25¢ 96¢ $33 $130 +$97 (+290%)
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? No 31¢ 44¢ $89 $128 +$40 (+45%)
Will Bitmine announce that it holds more than 7M ETH before 2027? No 77¢ 64¢ $145 $120 −$25 (-17%)
NATO article 5 before 2027? No 86¢ 92¢ $111 $118 +$7 (+6%)
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 40¢ 89¢ $52 $116 +$64 (+124%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Zelenskyy post 40-59 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 13 $4 +$81 +1803%
Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 13 $12 +$72 +580%
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? Jun 13 $81 +$1 +1%
Aurèle Amenda: 1+ assists Jun 13 $2 +$15 +711%
Will the US federal government take a stake in D-Wave Quantum Inc.? Jun 13 $15 +$4 +30%
Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 20+ times during the next PMQ? Jun 13 $8 +$2 +18%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,250 by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $8 +$17 +195%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027? Jun 13 $40 +$20 +50%
Julio César Enciso: 1+ shots Jun 13 $8 +$12 +135%
Will Solana reach $140 by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $13 +$8 +62%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,700 (HIGH) in June? Jun 13 $61 +$14 +24%
Will Trump say "Star" this week? Jun 13 $47 +$7 +15%
Will Hurupay launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $33 +$1 +4%
Will MrBeast say "Prize" during his next YouTube video? Jun 13 $14 +$4 +30%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? Jun 13 $27 −$6 -21%
Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June 2026? Jun 13 $7 +$38 +525%
Will Spencer Pratt concede by June 15? Jun 13 $21 +$21 +100%
Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026? Jun 13 $13 +$37 +287%
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 13 $75 −$15 -20%
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 13 $54 +$24 +44%
Will MrBeast say "Red Line" during his next YouTube video? Jun 13 $68 −$3 -4%
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 b Jun 13 $8 +$17 +198%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 13 $59 +$9 +15%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 13 $175 −$1 -1%
Will "Obsession" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on Ju Jun 13 $79 +$14 +18%
Will "Scary Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 17m? Jun 13 $91 −$19 -20%
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 40.0 and 42.9 in June? Jun 13 $40 −$15 -39%
Will Jonathan Hofeller be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating Sp Jun 12 $6 +$13 +209%
Will Fernando Dias da Costa win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential el Jun 12 $7 +$5 +74%
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 1.75T and 2.00T? Jun 12 $25 +$4 +15%
Will BULK launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 12 $39 +$1 +2%
Will MrBeast say "Lamborghini" during his next YouTube video? Jun 12 $32 +$16 +50%
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-J Jun 12 $41 −$16 -39%
Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-1.5) vs Majchrzak (+1.5) Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Bonzi (+1.5) Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Nathan Saliba: 2+ shots on target Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Owen Goodman: 3+ saves Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Nigeria - Completed match? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Luc De Fougerolles: 1+ assists Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Edin Džeko: 3+ shots on target Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Brancaccio vs Bronzetti Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Hong Kong, China vs United Arab Emirates - Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Balshaw vs. Tabur: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Owen Goodman: 5+ saves Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Edin Džeko: 4+ shots Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Romano vs. Jones: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Brancaccio vs. Bronzetti: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Modena: Completed Match: Nuria Brancaccio vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 67% +$6,311
world 12% +$744
tech 9% +$367
finance 3% +$145
politics 3% +$286
sports 3% +$6,058
culture 1% +$34
crypto 1% +$29
economics 0% +$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Antonio Sanabria: 1+ shots BUY No 14¢ $0 2m
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $850B by June 30? BUY No 55¢ $35 3m
A.J. Ewing: Home Runs O/U 0.5 BUY Over 6¢ $2 5m
Dane Myers: Home Runs O/U 0.5 BUY Over 9¢ $2 5m
US bank failure by June 30? BUY Yes 56¢ $18 11m
Will White House post 180-199 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $15 15m
Jassem Gaber: 1+ assists BUY Yes 9¢ $1 16m
Will White House post 180-199 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $8 16m
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? BUY Yes 14¢ $7 17m
Noah Okafor: 2+ assists BUY Yes 3¢ $1 17m
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 BUY Under 3¢ $0 20m
Will there be 5 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldw BUY Yes 26¢ $6 21m
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 BUY Under 2¢ $2 21m
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 BUY Under 2¢ $0 21m
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 BUY Under 2¢ $0 21m
Will Larry David attend Game 5 of the NBA Finals? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 22m
Miro Muheim: 1+ assists BUY Yes 8¢ $1 23m
Cédric Itten: 1+ assists BUY Yes 8¢ $1 23m
Ardon Jashari: 1+ assists BUY Yes 8¢ $1 24m
Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $3 25m
Will NYC Mayor post 60-79 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 41¢ $0 25m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 25m
Luca Jaquez: 1+ assists BUY Yes 4¢ $1 26m
Eray Cömert: 1+ assists BUY Yes 5¢ $1 27m
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 BUY Under 2¢ $1 30m
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 BUY Under 2¢ $2 30m
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 BUY Under 2¢ $0 31m
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 BUY Under 2¢ $0 31m
Aurèle Amenda: 1+ assists BUY Yes 6¢ $1 31m
Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 32m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)+90.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 373 +110.9% +90.8% 60% 51% +13.6%
≤30d 373 +110.9% +90.8% 60% 51% +13.6%
≤90d 373 +110.9% +90.8% 60% 51% +13.6%
all 373 +110.9% +90.8% 60% 51% +13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2556.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +90.8% 51% +13.6%
10% ← realistic here +72.6% 40% +2.7%
15% +55.9% 32% -7.2%
20% +40.6% 27% -16.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29,919.98 · official $97,355.34 · 3500 history records