Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T18:46:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AD 0xad51…336d politics 28 markets active 0h ago coverage 262d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$142 (-1%) realized −$495 · open +$353
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate39%9W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$459per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$9,422now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$367
14 days−$367
30 days−$199
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 85% +$502
sports 11% −$245
politics 2% −$303
other 1% −$54
tech 0% +$12
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-41.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -19.3% -27.0% 50% 50% -43.8%
≤30d 5 -10.2% -18.8% 60% 60% -20.7%
≤90d 16 -51.5% -56.2% 31% 25% -21.3%
all 23 -34.9% -41.1% 39% 30% -20.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.1% 30% -20.9%
10% -46.8% 26% -28.5%
15% -51.9% 22% -35.4%
20% -56.6% 17% -41.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -46% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$64 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

262d coverage
Net worth$9,422
Realized−$495
Unrealized+$353
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses9 / 14
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions5
Markets (closed)23 / 28
History coverage262d
Avg bet$459
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 56¢ 58¢ $8,624 $8,950 +$326 (+4%)
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Over 64¢ 100¢ $244 $380 +$136 (+56%)
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Over 39¢ 42¢ $55 $59 +$4 (+7%)
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Over 22¢ $108 $32 −$76 (-70%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 38¢ $38 $0 −$37 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 4.5 Jun 27 $510 −$510 -100%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 27 $192 +$96 +50%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $72 −$58 -81%
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $195 +$105 +54%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? Jun 01 $647 +$169 +26%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? May 23 $900 −$50 -6%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? May 23 $576 +$58 +10%
Will Trump say "Mao" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? May 12 $73 −$73 -100%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 16, 2026? May 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 15, 2026? May 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 14, 2026? May 11 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 12, 2026? May 11 $74 −$74 -100%
Will Trump say "Kamikaze" during events with Xi Jinping? May 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 11, 2026? May 09 $81 −$81 -100%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem May 07 $54 +$12 +22%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 15? Dec 15 $50 +$4 +9%
XRP Up or Down - October 30, 12PM ET Oct 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 16, 1PM ET Oct 30 $5 +$5 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 16, 11AM ET Oct 30 $5 +$5 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 16, 2PM ET Oct 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 16, 12PM ET Oct 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 11AM ET Oct 16 $5 +$5 +104%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 89¢ $9 26m
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 89¢ $131 26m
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 12¢ $12 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 30¢ $30 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $189 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $236 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $38 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $18 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $86 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 24¢ $98 1h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 85¢ $51 2d
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 85¢ $6 2d
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 85¢ $28 2d
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 85¢ $266 2d
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 85¢ $159 2d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) SELL Uruguay 96¢ $34 2d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) SELL Uruguay 96¢ $48 2d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) SELL Uruguay 96¢ $6 2d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) SELL Uruguay 96¢ $42 2d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) SELL Uruguay 96¢ $29 2d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) SELL Uruguay 96¢ $49 2d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) SELL Uruguay 96¢ $79 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes $14 2d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 64¢ $166 2d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 64¢ $17 2d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 64¢ $7 2d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 64¢ $2 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 36¢ $72 3d
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $195 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 53¢ $1 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.