Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:36:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AD 0xad51…f21c other 233 markets active 1h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$69 (-0%) realized −$69 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%11W / 222L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$203per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$16
14 days−$24
30 days−$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$38
sports 21% −$16
politics 7% −$6
culture 7% −$6
crypto 5% −$5
economics 5% −$3
world 3% −$4
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 64 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 178 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
all 233 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$69
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses11 / 222
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)233 / 233
History coverage128d
Avg bet$203
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 233 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $50 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $394 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $295 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $330 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $389 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $301 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $396 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $371 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $452 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $103 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 16 $245 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $240 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $199 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $165 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 15 $548 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $551 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $228 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $232 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $474 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $508 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $247 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $361 −$1 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $53 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $248 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $441 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $53 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $342 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $126 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $253 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $781 −$3 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $183 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $537 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 08 $365 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 07 $276 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 06 $385 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $56 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 06 $203 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $212 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 06 $257 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 05 $412 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $123 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $309 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $465 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 03 $406 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $296 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $364 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $329 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 01 $204 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $130 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? May 31 $148 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $49 1h
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $50 2h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $50 3h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $50 4h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $50 10h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $50 12h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $50 13h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $50 14h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $50 16h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $50 18h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $50 19h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $50 21h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $50 23h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $50 25h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $50 26h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $50 28h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $50 29h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $50 30h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $50 35h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $51 36h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $51 38h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $51 38h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $51 44h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $51 45h
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 SELL No 98¢ $35 45h
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 SELL No 98¢ $16 47h
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 BUY No 98¢ $51 2d
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $51 2d
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $51 2d
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $51 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1314 history records