Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:37:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AD 0xad50…684d crypto 367 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 5d only
✗ bot/MM pace (623 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$263 (+2%) realized +$264 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate60%218W / 147L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day623.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$51
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (623 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 365 +0.1% -9.5% 60% 55% -9.8%
≤30d 365 +0.1% -9.5% 60% 55% -9.8%
≤90d 365 +0.1% -9.5% 60% 55% -9.8%
all 365 +0.1% -9.5% 60% 55% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover623.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.5% 55% -9.8%
10% ← realistic here -18.1% 41% -18.4%
15% -26.0% 21% -26.3%
20% -33.3% 14% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$30 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized+$264
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses218 / 147
Open positions2
Markets (closed)365 / 367
History coverage5d ⚠
Avg bet$47
Trades / day623.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 365 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Up 49¢ 75¢ $8 $12 +$4 (+53%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Up 15¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$9 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$3 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $72 −$29 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $46 +$27 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$20 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $12 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $39 −$21 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 15 $38 −$8 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $57 +$129 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$10 +203%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $88 +$34 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $31 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $18 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $86 −$86 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $22 +$6 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $51 +$24 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $34 +$11 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $94 +$19 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $28 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $51 +$14 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $79 +$18 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$26 +131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $16 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $90 +$23 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $22 −$9 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$15 +136%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $28 +$123 +439%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $84 +$21 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $100 +$33 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $59 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $100 +$20 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $86 +$25 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $101 +$32 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $107 −$79 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $82 +$16 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $89 −$89 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $8 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $3 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $3 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $12 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $9 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $3 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $12 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.09 · official $7.40 · 3500 history records