Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:48:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AD 0xad50…3122 weather 371 markets active 0h ago coverage 36d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 35d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (95 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$6,643 (+7%) realized +$6,805 · open −$162
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate36%127W / 225L
Whale WR87%big bets
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$268per market
Trades / day94.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$300now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 36d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 98% +$2,083
other 2% +$99
sports 0% +$34
crypto 0% +$1
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (95 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 141 -10.0% -18.6% 23% 16% -6.6%
≤30d 326 +2.1% -7.6% 34% 21% -7.1%
≤90d 352 +1.7% -8.0% 36% 22% -7.3%
all 352 +1.7% -8.0% 36% 22% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover94.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.0% 22% -7.3%
10% ← realistic here -16.8% 18% -16.2%
15% -24.8% 16% -24.3%
20% -32.2% 15% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 87% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +17% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
7.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$10 · ×3.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.09 per $1 lost it wins $2.09
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$300
Realized+$6,805
Unrealized−$162
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses127 / 225
Whale WR (big bets)87%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions29
Markets (closed)352 / 371
History coverage36d ⚠
Avg bet$268
Trades / day94.9
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 29 History 352 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $34 $35 +$1 (+3%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $29 $32 +$3 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $29 $28 −$1 (-2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $32 $28 −$4 (-12%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $33 $27 −$7 (-20%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $22 $23 +$1 (+3%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 29¢ 42¢ $14 $21 +$6 (+43%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 17? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-19%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $11 $13 +$1 (+13%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 16? Yes 53¢ 94¢ $7 $12 +$5 (+77%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 17? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+2%)
Will Hong Kong have between 475-500mm of precipitation in June? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $11 $8 −$2 (-23%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 17? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+18%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 16? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-17%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 16? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-12%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+21%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 17? Yes 5¢ 2¢ $6 $2 −$4 (-65%)
Will Hong Kong have between 450-475mm of precipitation in June? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-65%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 16? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $99 $1 −$98 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 16? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-96%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 16? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$7 (-97%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 16? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-97%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 16? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$5 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 16? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 121 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C or higher on May 4? Jun 16 $2 +$6 +407%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 21°C on April 29? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -83%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 5? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 1? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C or higher on May 7? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 20°C on May 5? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 6? Jun 16 $1 +$112 +11228%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 4? Jun 16 $2 +$10 +636%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on May 9? Jun 16 $0 −$1 -1358%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 21°C on May 5? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Hong Kong have between 425-450mm of precipitation in June? Jun 16 $12 −$7 -60%
Will Hong Kong have between 400-425mm of precipitation in June? Jun 16 $13 −$12 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? Jun 16 $31 −$8 -27%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? Jun 16 $17 −$3 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 17? Jun 16 $7 −$5 -76%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 17? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -52%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? Jun 16 $6 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -86%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $28 +$53 +190%
Will Hong Kong have between 375-400mm of precipitation in June? Jun 16 $12 −$6 -53%
Will Hong Kong have between 350-375mm of precipitation in June? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -86%
Will Hong Kong have less than 350mm of precipitation in June? Jun 16 $5 −$4 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? Jun 16 $1,512 +$163 +11%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $7 −$4 -58%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $15 −$8 -52%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $23 −$4 -16%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$4 +90%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $47 −$20 -43%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $29 −$2 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 15 Jun 15 $1 $0 -37%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 −$2 -42%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? Jun 15 $5,941 +$227 +4%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 14? Jun 15 $413 +$344 +83%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? Jun 15 $117 +$60 +51%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 12? Jun 15 $168 +$32 +19%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? Jun 15 $75 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 15? Jun 14 $3 −$2 -89%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $18 +$30 +168%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $44 −$44 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $29 −$29 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $15 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 14 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -87%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $19 −$11 -57%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 14? Jun 13 $6 −$5 -77%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 14? Jun 13 $11 −$11 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 14? Jun 13 $16 −$16 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 0m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 16? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 21m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 16? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 21m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 16? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 23m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 16? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 25m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 3¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 29¢ $12 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 29¢ $17 2h
Will Hong Kong have between 425-450mm of precipitation in June? SELL Yes 2¢ $5 2h
Will Hong Kong have between 400-425mm of precipitation in June? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? SELL Yes 20¢ $23 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? SELL Yes 10¢ $13 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 17? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 17? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? SELL Yes 18¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 3h
Will Hong Kong have between 400-425mm of precipitation in June? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 4h
Will Hong Kong have between 400-425mm of precipitation in June? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 4h
Will Hong Kong have between 425-450mm of precipitation in June? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 4h
Will Hong Kong have between 425-450mm of precipitation in June? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 4h
Will Hong Kong have between 475-500mm of precipitation in June? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $299.86 · official $299.87 (match) · 3500 history records