Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:01:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
AD 0xad4e…12f1 other 285 markets active 1h ago coverage 197d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$15,059 (-4%) realized −$15,278 · open +$219
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate64%181W / 102L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,362per market
Trades / day14.7pace
Fees−$68est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$5,659now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,250
7 days−$45
14 days+$621
30 days+$621
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 35% −$5,412
world 20% +$2,079
politics 20% +$1,612
sports 17% −$11,203
economics 4% +$296
crypto 3% +$595
tech 1% −$3,262
finance 0% +$446
culture 0% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.9% -10.3% 89% 33% -9.7%
≤30d 11 +1.8% -7.9% 91% 36% -7.5%
≤90d 23 -22.3% -29.7% 61% 35% -22.6%
all 283 -3.2% -12.4% 64% 41% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.7 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.4% 41% -12.8%
10% ← realistic here -20.8% 28% -21.1%
15% -28.4% 18% -28.8%
20% -35.5% 14% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$1,797) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
7.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$221 vs −$562 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

197d coverage
Net worth$5,659
Realized−$15,278
Unrealized+$219
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses181 / 102
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$68
Open positions2
Markets (closed)283 / 285
History coverage197d
Avg bet$1,362
Trades / day14.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 283 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Yes 93¢ 92¢ $3,993 $3,953 −$39 (-1%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? No 72¢ 84¢ $1,447 $1,705 +$258 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $7,168 +$255 +4%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $5,192 +$982 +19%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 15 $309 +$13 +4%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? Jun 14 $280 +$30 +11%
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? Jun 13 $2,433 +$191 +8%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $998 +$431 +43%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $2,001 −$1,990 -100%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $657 +$15 +2%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $2,955 +$29 +1%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 09 $3,264 +$278 +8%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 04 $2,011 +$387 +19%
Will Melbourne City FC win on 2026-04-04? Apr 05 $2,373 −$1,587 -67%
Pelicans vs. Kings Apr 04 $3,631 −$3,631 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. New York Yankees Apr 04 $2,104 +$1,524 +72%
Celtics vs. Hornets Mar 29 $502 −$502 -100%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-03-21? Mar 21 $2,136 −$2,136 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-21? Mar 21 $880 −$880 -100%
Warriors vs. Pistons Mar 21 $351 +$158 +45%
Raptors vs. Nuggets Mar 21 $93 −$93 -100%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-03-20? Mar 21 $2,039 +$832 +41%
Trail Blazers vs. Timberwolves Mar 20 $271 −$271 -100%
76ers vs. Kings Mar 20 $200 +$151 +75%
Will Kayserispor win on 2026-03-19? Mar 19 $275 −$275 -100%
Suns vs. Timberwolves Mar 18 $399 +$383 +96%
T20 Series New Zealand vs South Africa: New Zealand vs South Africa Mar 17 $3,000 +$1,688 +56%
Spurs vs. Clippers Mar 17 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-02-27? Feb 27 $1,029 −$1,029 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Feb 26 $462 −$462 -100%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 26 $1,336 −$875 -66%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the 2026 State of the Unio Feb 25 $616 +$293 +48%
Will Trump say "UFC" during the 2026 State of the Union address? Feb 25 $327 +$184 +56%
Will Trump say "Hockey" during the 2026 State of the Union address? Feb 25 $72 −$72 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 25 $4,820 +$1,026 +21%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-18? Feb 18 $2,047 −$2,047 -100%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $6 mil Feb 17 $5,379 +$301 +6%
T20 World Cup: Australia vs Sri Lanka (Game 1) Feb 16 $377 −$377 -100%
Will the Logan Paul 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 800k? Feb 16 $421 +$105 +25%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $12 mi Feb 16 $1,221 −$1,160 -95%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $10 mi Feb 16 $727 −$699 -96%
Rotterdam Open: Alex de Minaur vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Feb 16 $2,096 +$206 +10%
Government shutdown on Saturday? Feb 15 $6,623 −$2,327 -35%
Rotterdam Open: Alex de Minaur vs Ugo Humbert Feb 15 $276 +$124 +45%
Will Trump and Netanyahu only be photographed together by February 13, Feb 14 $2,935 +$49 +2%
Rotterdam Open: Alex de Minaur vs Botic van de Zandschulp Feb 14 $440 +$72 +16%
Starmer out by February 28, 2026? Feb 13 $4,643 +$774 +17%
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 10, 2026? Feb 13 $1,648 −$1,321 -80%
Rotterdam Open: Alex de Minaur vs Stan Wawrinka Feb 13 $495 +$67 +14%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-02-11? Feb 12 $820 +$180 +22%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-02-11? Feb 12 $740 +$260 +35%
Rotterdam Open: Christopher O'Connell vs Cameron Norrie Feb 11 $50 +$158 +317%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $3,993 57m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $3,992 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $741 14h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? BUY No 71¢ $430 14h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $101 14h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $175 14h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $1,448 14h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $916 37h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $5 37h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $5 37h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $934 37h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $5 37h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $101 37h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $114 37h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $5 37h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $23 37h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $91 37h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $5 37h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $287 37h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $456 37h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $1,916 37h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $5 37h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $310 37h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $53 37h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $5,227 37h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 86¢ $43 39h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $45 39h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $837 39h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $18 39h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 94¢ $272 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,658.56 · official $5,656.42 (match) · 3138 history records