Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:48:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AD 0xad4d…d9c5 world 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 458d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate52%17W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 56% −$3
other 32% +$1
politics 4% +$1
sports 2% +$1
finance 2% $0
economics 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
culture 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -5.2% -14.3% 0% 0% -12.0%
≤30d 16 -1.5% -10.9% 44% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 16 -1.5% -10.9% 44% 0% -10.1%
all 33 -0.1% -9.6% 52% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

458d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses17 / 16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage458d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $39 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $39 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 16 $16 −$3 -16%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $1 $0 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $38 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $42 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $37 $0 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 08 $13 −$1 -7%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $138 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $3 $0 +3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $24 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $8 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $38 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 03 $37 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $7 $0 -4%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $27 $0 +0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? Jun 24 $11 $0 +1%
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30? Jun 09 $11 $0 -1%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 06 $11 $0 +0%
No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting? Jun 05 $11 $0 -0%
Will reconciliation bill be passed by June 30? Jun 05 $8 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jun-seok win more than 14% of the vote in the South Korea ele Jun 04 $1 $0 +4%
Will Hong Joon-pyo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $10 +$1 +7%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? May 06 $2 $0 +1%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Minnesota Vikings? Apr 20 $10 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $190 in April? Apr 19 $11 $0 -1%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 19 $11 $0 +2%
March Madness: Will 0 teams seeded #1 make the Final 4? Mar 31 $13 $0 +4%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 26 $13 $0 -0%
Wofford vs. Tennessee Mar 23 $11 +$1 +5%
Will Trump pardon Roger Ver in his first 100 days? Mar 18 $12 $0 -0%
Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 17 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $39 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $39 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $30 7h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $9 7h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $39 7h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 80¢ $12 33h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 80¢ $2 33h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 95¢ $16 5d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 7d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 54¢ $5 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 54¢ $13 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 54¢ $19 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 54¢ $4 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 54¢ $3 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 54¢ $31 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL No 99¢ $36 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL No 99¢ $6 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY No 99¢ $42 8d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $37 9d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $37 9d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL No 32¢ $7 9d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL No 32¢ $6 9d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY No 35¢ $6 9d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY No 34¢ $2 9d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY No 34¢ $2 9d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY No 34¢ $4 9d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $42 10d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $42 10d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 99 history records