Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T12:32:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AD
0xad4d…37e3
crypto · 8 markets active 1h ago
4.0score
+$10 +27%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$10 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✓ COPY-WORTHY crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses5 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day23.0
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit88%
Chart Positions 0 History 8 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$10
14 days+$10
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Up 19¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Down 18¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Down 35¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$3 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -92%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$8 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 71% +$1
other 29% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 25¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 92¢ $19 10h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $3 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET SELL Down 79¢ $4 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $2 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+25.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +38.9% +25.7% 62% 62% +21.4%
≤30d 8 +38.9% +25.7% 62% 62% +21.4%
≤90d 8 +38.9% +25.7% 62% 62% +21.4%
all 8 +38.9% +25.7% 62% 62% +21.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover23.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +25.7% 62% +21.4%
10% ← realistic here +13.7% 62% +9.7%
15% +2.7% 50% -0.9%
20% -7.4% 50% -10.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 23 history records