Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:42:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
AD 0xad4a…40d3 crypto 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$16 (-1%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate95%19W / 1L
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$111per market
Trades / day20.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$112
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +0.4% -9.2% 95% 5% -5.0%
≤30d 20 +0.4% -9.2% 95% 5% -5.0%
≤90d 20 +0.4% -9.2% 95% 5% -5.0%
all 20 +0.4% -9.2% 95% 5% -5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 5% -5.0%
10% -17.9% 5% -14.1%
15% -25.8% 5% -22.4%
20% -33.1% 5% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 83% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$19 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×6.89 per $1 lost it wins $6.89
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses19 / 1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)20 / 20
History coverage1d
Avg bet$111
Trades / day20.0
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 20 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 22 $121 +$94 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 22 $141 +$15 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 22 $140 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 22 $140 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 22 $140 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 22 $140 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 22 $123 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 21 $123 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 21 $123 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 21 $123 +$4 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 21 $120 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 21 $123 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 21 $120 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 21 $123 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 21 $123 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 21 $120 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 21 $123 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 21 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 21 $19 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 21 $19 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 61 history records