Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T13:49:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AD
0xad49…2b04
weather · 894 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$30 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$31 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$11
Realized−$31
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses642 / 279
Open positions6
Markets (closed)921 / 894
History coverage94d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day27.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 6 History 921 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$24
7 days−$23
14 days−$24
30 days−$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 14? No 91¢ 93¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 86°F or higher on June 13? No 98¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 14? No 88¢ 88¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 13? No 96¢ 92¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? No 72¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+37%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? No 83¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+20%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on March 23? No 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Iran/Hezbollah strike on Cyprus by March 15? No 84¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+19%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Up 59¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Up 57¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Up 21¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Down 66¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Down 59¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Down 56¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Up 58¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Up 57¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Down 60¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - March 14, 6AM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Down 64¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran/Hezbollah strike on Cyprus by March 15? Jun 13 $0 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 13 $0 −$1 -852%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 13 $0 −$1 -543%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 13 $0 −$1 -483%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 13 $0 −$1 -259%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 13 $0 −$1 -224%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 13 $0 −$1 -506%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $0 −$1 -760%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -233%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 13 $0 −$1 -301%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 13 $0 −$1 -284%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 13 $0 −$1 -217%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -136%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 13 $0 −$1 -1006%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 13 $0 −$1 -949%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -182%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 13 $0 −$1 -300%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 13 $0 −$1 -384%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 13 $0 −$1 -188%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 13 $0 −$1 -233%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $0 −$1 -235%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 13 $0 −$1 -511%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 13 $0 −$1 -938%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 13 $0 −$1 -254%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 13 $0 −$1 -230%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 13 $0 −$1 -250%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 10? Jun 11 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 10? Jun 11 $2 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 9? Jun 09 $2 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C or below on June 8? Jun 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 8? Jun 08 $2 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 7? Jun 08 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 7? Jun 08 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 07 $2 $0 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 6? Jun 06 $2 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 6? Jun 06 $2 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 3? Jun 05 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 3? Jun 05 $2 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 4? Jun 05 $2 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on June 2? Jun 03 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 2? Jun 02 $2 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 51% −$11
crypto 49% +$4
world 0% $0
other 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 14? BUY No 91¢ $2 58m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 88¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 13? BUY No 96¢ $2 20h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 86°F or higher on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $2 20h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 13? BUY No 90¢ $2 24h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 12? BUY No 86¢ $2 42h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 12? BUY No 96¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 10? BUY No 88¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 10? BUY No 97¢ $2 4d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 9? BUY No 94¢ $2 4d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 10? BUY No 99¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C or below on June 8? BUY No 98¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 8? BUY No 94¢ $2 6d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 7? BUY No 97¢ $2 6d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 7? BUY No 98¢ $2 6d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju BUY No 87¢ $2 7d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 6? BUY No 99¢ $2 7d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 6? BUY No 95¢ $2 7d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 3? BUY No 94¢ $2 10d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 4? BUY No 90¢ $2 10d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on June 2? BUY No 99¢ $2 11d
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 3? BUY No 97¢ $2 11d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 2? BUY No 94¢ $2 11d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 1? BUY No 90¢ $2 12d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 1? BUY No 95¢ $2 12d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 1? BUY No 98¢ $2 13d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 1? BUY No 95¢ $2 13d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on May 31? BUY No 98¢ $2 14d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on May 30? BUY No 99¢ $2 14d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C or below on May 30? BUY No 95¢ $2 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 -64.6% -68.0% 29% 9% -29.5%
≤30d 102 -27.4% -34.3% 61% 14% -13.2%
≤90d 503 -5.8% -14.8% 86% 14% -10.4%
all 921 -3.9% -13.1% 70% 30% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover27.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.1% 30% -10.1%
10% ← realistic here -21.4% 22% -18.7%
15% -29.0% 21% -26.6%
20% -36.0% 19% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.86 · official $9.53 · 3500 history records