trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bucks vs. Mavericks | Mavericks | 57¢ | 0¢ | $2 | $0 | −$2 (-100%) |
| Raptors vs. Bucks | Bucks | 37¢ | 0¢ | $5 | $0 | −$5 (-100%) |
| Timberwolves vs. Jazz | Jazz | 16¢ | 0¢ | $5 | $0 | −$5 (-100%) |
| Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 12+ times during Pennsylvania events on December 9? | No | 16¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Cavaliers vs. Wizards | Wizards | 14¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Hornets vs. Cavaliers | Hornets | 16¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Will DraftKings launch a prediction market in 2025? | No | 23¢ | 0¢ | $2 | $0 | −$2 (-100%) |
| Who will win Alycia Baumgardner vs Leila Beaudoin? | Beaudoin | 0¢ | 0¢ | $2 | $0 | −$2 (-100%) |
| Bucks vs. Timberwolves | Bucks | 24¢ | 0¢ | $4 | $0 | −$4 (-100%) |
| Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 31? | Yes | 3¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Grizzlies vs. Thunder | Grizzlies | 14¢ | 0¢ | $2 | $0 | −$2 (-100%) |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | Yes | 8¢ | 0¢ | $2 | $0 | −$2 (-100%) |
| Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? | Yes | 9¢ | 0¢ | $32 | $0 | −$32 (-100%) |
| Magic vs. Warriors | Magic | 40¢ | 0¢ | $4 | $0 | −$4 (-100%) |
| Will Solana reach $250 in May? | Yes | 9¢ | 0¢ | $19 | $0 | −$19 (-100%) |
| Will Curtis Sliwa drop out? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Mavericks vs. Rockets | Mavericks | 15¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Lakers vs. Celtics | Lakers | 9¢ | 0¢ | $2 | $0 | −$2 (-100%) |
| Celtics vs. Magic | Magic | 15¢ | 0¢ | $2 | $0 | −$2 (-100%) |
| Will Trump remove his Rob Reiner post? | Yes | 5¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Knicks vs. Raptors | Raptors | 16¢ | 0¢ | $18 | $0 | −$18 (-100%) |
| Timberwolves vs. Pelicans | Pelicans | 45¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Will Trump say "News" or "Media" 10+ times during "60 Minutes" on November 2? | Yes | 30¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Will Google (GOOGL) close at $295–310 in 2025? | Yes | 28¢ | 0¢ | $3 | $0 | −$3 (-100%) |
| Pacers vs. Celtics | Pacers | 58¢ | 0¢ | $11 | $0 | −$11 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Knicks vs. Spurs | Jun 14 | $36 | +$63 | +175% |
| Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair? | Dec 27 | $1 | $0 | +14% |
| Wizards vs. Hornets | Dec 24 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? | Dec 24 | $4 | +$1 | +16% |
| Pistons vs. Trail Blazers | Dec 23 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Magic vs. Warriors | Dec 23 | $4 | −$4 | -100% |
| Grizzlies vs. Thunder | Dec 23 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Mavericks vs. Pelicans | Dec 23 | $40 | +$15 | +37% |
| Pacers vs. Celtics | Dec 23 | $45 | −$11 | -24% |
| Hornets vs. Cavaliers | Dec 23 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Bucks vs. Timberwolves | Dec 22 | $24 | −$2 | -7% |
| Jets vs. Utah | Dec 22 | $5 | $0 | +1% |
| Raptors vs. Nets | Dec 22 | $4 | +$4 | +99% |
| Drake Bulldogs vs. Evansville Aces | Dec 21 | $5 | +$1 | +16% |
| Bulls vs. Hawks | Dec 21 | $3 | $0 | +1% |
| Maduro out in 2025? | Dec 21 | $20 | −$17 | -86% |
| Will Pam Bondi be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? | Dec 21 | $5 | +$5 | +105% |
| Celtics vs. Raptors | Dec 21 | $47 | +$13 | +26% |
| Mavericks vs. 76ers | Dec 21 | $5 | $0 | +7% |
| Will Google (GOOGL) close at $295–310 in 2025? | Dec 21 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? | Dec 20 | $37 | −$32 | -86% |
| Who will win Alycia Baumgardner vs Leila Beaudoin? | Dec 20 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Thunder vs. Timberwolves | Dec 20 | $3 | −$1 | -21% |
| Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua have no official winner? | Dec 20 | $3 | −$1 | -28% |
| 76ers vs. Knicks | Dec 20 | $2 | +$3 | +175% |
| Heat vs. Celtics | Dec 20 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Raptors vs. Bucks | Dec 18 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Cavaliers vs. Bulls | Dec 18 | $4 | +$7 | +177% |
| Will DraftKings launch a prediction market in 2025? | Dec 17 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will Trump remove his Rob Reiner post? | Dec 17 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Spurs vs. Knicks | Dec 17 | $10 | +$16 | +157% |
| Knicks vs. Raptors | Dec 10 | $18 | −$18 | -100% |
| Will Google (GOOGL) hit $335 before 2026?? | Dec 10 | $10 | −$1 | -7% |
| Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 12+ times during P | Dec 09 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Lakers vs. Celtics | Dec 06 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Timberwolves vs. Pelicans | Dec 03 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Thunder vs. Warriors | Dec 03 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? | Dec 03 | $3 | −$2 | -70% |
| Bulls vs. Magic | Dec 02 | $2 | +$3 | +150% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | Dec 02 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Hawks vs. Clippers | Nov 11 | $4 | +$6 | +156% |
| Timberwolves vs. Jazz | Nov 11 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Bucks vs. Mavericks | Nov 11 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Spurs vs. Bulls | Nov 11 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Trail Blazers vs. Magic | Nov 11 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11? | Nov 11 | $16 | +$8 | +53% |
| Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later? | Nov 11 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 15? | Nov 10 | $6 | −$6 | -100% |
| Celtics vs. Magic | Nov 10 | $9 | −$2 | -22% |
| Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15? | Nov 10 | $10 | +$2 | +18% |
| Market | side | price | size | when |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Knicks vs. Spurs | SELL Knicks | 99¢ | $49 | 1h |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | SELL Spurs | 16¢ | $0 | 1h |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | SELL Spurs | 16¢ | $2 | 1h |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | BUY Spurs | 7¢ | $1 | 1h |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | SELL Knicks | 54¢ | $9 | 1h |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | SELL Knicks | 58¢ | $38 | 1h |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | BUY Knicks | 25¢ | $1 | 3h |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | BUY Knicks | 22¢ | $3 | 3h |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | BUY Knicks | 26¢ | $31 | 3h |
| Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair? | SELL Yes | 2¢ | $1 | 169d |
| Wizards vs. Hornets | BUY Wizards | 19¢ | $5 | 172d |
| Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? | SELL Yes | 27¢ | $5 | 172d |
| Pistons vs. Trail Blazers | BUY Trail Blazers | 25¢ | $1 | 173d |
| Magic vs. Warriors | BUY Magic | 37¢ | $1 | 173d |
| Pistons vs. Trail Blazers | BUY Trail Blazers | 26¢ | $1 | 173d |
| Pistons vs. Trail Blazers | BUY Trail Blazers | 30¢ | $2 | 173d |
| Magic vs. Warriors | BUY Magic | 41¢ | $2 | 173d |
| Magic vs. Warriors | BUY Magic | 40¢ | $1 | 173d |
| Pistons vs. Trail Blazers | BUY Trail Blazers | 30¢ | $1 | 173d |
| Grizzlies vs. Thunder | BUY Grizzlies | 12¢ | $1 | 173d |
| Mavericks vs. Pelicans | SELL Pelicans | 72¢ | $6 | 173d |
| Mavericks vs. Pelicans | SELL Pelicans | 57¢ | $5 | 173d |
| Mavericks vs. Pelicans | SELL Mavericks | 47¢ | $3 | 173d |
| Mavericks vs. Pelicans | SELL Pelicans | 49¢ | $3 | 173d |
| Mavericks vs. Pelicans | SELL Pelicans | 47¢ | $4 | 173d |
| Mavericks vs. Pelicans | SELL Mavericks | 46¢ | $3 | 173d |
| Mavericks vs. Pelicans | SELL Pelicans | 51¢ | $5 | 173d |
| Mavericks vs. Pelicans | SELL Mavericks | 51¢ | $7 | 173d |
| Mavericks vs. Pelicans | SELL Pelicans | 46¢ | $19 | 173d |
| Mavericks vs. Pelicans | BUY Pelicans | 24¢ | $20 | 173d |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +175.4% | +149.1% | 100% | 100% | +149.1% |
| ≤30d | 1 | +175.4% | +149.1% | 100% | 100% | +149.1% |
| ≤90d | 1 | +175.4% | +149.1% | 100% | 100% | +149.1% |
| all | 135 | +18.3% | +7.0% | 41% | 36% | -5.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +7.0% | 36% | -5.3% |
| 10% | -3.2% | 31% | -14.3% |
| 15% | -12.6% | 30% | -22.6% |
| 20% | -21.1% | 27% | -30.2% |