Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:36:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AD 0xad45…df42 crypto 194 markets active 0h ago coverage 28d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 27d only
✗ bot/MM pace (118 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,112 (-6%) realized −$1,119 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate70%134W / 57L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$100per market
Trades / day117.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$339now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$736
7 days−$736
14 days−$910
30 days−$979
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$972
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (118 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -32.5% -39.0% 45% 24% -38.4%
≤30d 191 -7.3% -16.2% 70% 26% -14.2%
≤90d 191 -7.3% -16.2% 70% 26% -14.2%
all 191 -7.3% -16.2% 70% 26% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover117.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.2% 26% -14.2%
10% ← realistic here -24.2% 14% -22.4%
15% -31.5% 6% -29.9%
20% -38.2% 3% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
17.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$49 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$339
Realized−$1,119
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses134 / 57
Open positions3
Markets (closed)191 / 194
History coverage28d ⚠
Avg bet$100
Trades / day117.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 191 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Up 81¢ 100¢ $63 $77 +$14 (+23%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Up 79¢ 72¢ $41 $37 −$4 (-9%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Up 88¢ 61¢ $29 $20 −$9 (-31%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Down 21¢ 28¢ $12 $17 +$5 (+38%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Down 19¢ 39¢ $5 $10 +$5 (+108%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Down 18¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $95 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $68 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $77 −$12 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $69 +$7 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $71 +$10 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $68 −$11 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $118 +$13 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $72 −$54 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $71 −$58 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $72 +$21 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $70 −$66 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $72 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $71 −$48 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $70 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $73 +$11 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $75 +$25 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $74 −$74 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $75 −$75 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $75 +$6 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $76 +$38 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $99 +$51 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $22 −$14 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $22 −$7 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$2 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $163 −$52 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 16 $76 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $508 −$421 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 09 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 09 $113 −$113 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 09 $46 +$15 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 09 $89 +$16 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 08 $4 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 08 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 08 $97 −$19 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 08 $183 +$15 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 08 $163 +$9 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 08 $127 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 08 $86 +$11 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 08 $80 −$69 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 08 $25 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 08 $36 +$10 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 08 $13 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 08 $180 −$7 -4%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET May 20 $9 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET May 20 $165 +$39 +24%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 20 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 20 $178 +$48 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 20 $177 +$13 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $4 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $9 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $3 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $3 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 0m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $339.00 · official $330.77 · 3500 history records