Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:10:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AD 0xad45…f4b5 crypto 31 markets active 12h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (98 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$23 (+10%) realized +$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate55%17W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day98.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (98 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -0.3% -9.8% 55% 45% -3.0%
≤30d 31 -0.3% -9.8% 55% 45% -3.0%
≤90d 31 -0.3% -9.8% 55% 45% -3.0%
all 31 -0.3% -9.8% 55% 45% -3.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover98.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.8% 45% -3.0%
10% ← realistic here -18.4% 35% -12.3%
15% -26.3% 29% -20.7%
20% -33.5% 26% -28.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses17 / 14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage1d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day98.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$4 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $9 +$1 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $9 +$2 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $9 +$6 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $12 +$3 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$5 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$3 -37%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $8 +$7 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $8 +$7 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $12 +$3 +27%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$3 -91%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $8 +$8 +106%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $7 +$1 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$3 -33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $13 −$4 -28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$3 -34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $9 +$6 +72%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $11 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$17 +215%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$6 +174%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $4 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $4 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up 23¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $4 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $4 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $4 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $4 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 128 history records