Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:29:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AD 0xad44…ce9f sports 19 markets active 0h ago coverage 152d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$116 (-8%) realized −$116 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate53%10W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$35
7 days−$81
14 days−$81
30 days−$81
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% +$34
crypto 26% −$47
other 14% −$115
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +19.3% +7.9% 67% 56% -16.8%
≤30d 9 +19.3% +7.9% 67% 56% -16.8%
≤90d 9 +19.3% +7.9% 67% 56% -16.8%
all 19 +0.3% -9.2% 53% 42% -17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 42% -17.4%
10% -17.9% 42% -25.3%
15% -25.8% 32% -32.5%
20% -33.1% 16% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 48% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$35 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

152d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$116
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses10 / 9
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions0
Markets (closed)19 / 19
History coverage152d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 19 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $75 −$12 -16%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $20 +$8 +39%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $22 +$11 +48%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $426 −$51 -12%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $122 +$10 +8%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $162 −$160 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 +$45 +89%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $51 +$46 +90%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $79 +$23 +28%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Feb 06 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Feb 06 $30 +$22 +74%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $76,000 on February 5? Feb 05 $51 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90,000 and $92,000 on January 24 Jan 24 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jan 23 $2 +$1 +33%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on January 21 Jan 21 $61 −$59 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $88,000 on January 21? Jan 21 $69 −$9 -12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90,000 and $92,000 on January 20 Jan 20 $56 +$23 +41%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $92,000 and $94,000 on January 20 Jan 20 $145 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Spirit (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Qu Jan 18 $40 −$3 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Vitality 37¢ $17 23m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 45¢ $21 58m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 63¢ $21 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 48¢ $16 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 37¢ $16 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 64¢ $28 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 39¢ $28 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 27¢ $20 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 87¢ $21 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 46¢ $4 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 51¢ $8 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Vitality 46¢ $12 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 38¢ $10 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 36¢ $10 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 33¢ $9 4h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 86¢ $10 5h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 60¢ $7 5h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 66¢ $7 5h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 49¢ $5 5h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 61¢ $5 5h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 61¢ $5 5h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 88¢ $5 5h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 71¢ $4 5h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL G2 $4 5h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 36¢ $17 5h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL G2 48¢ $18 5h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 91¢ $34 5h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL G2 35¢ $33 6h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 72¢ $71 6h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL G2 65¢ $72 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 107 history records