Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T08:40:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AD
0xad42…c918
weather · 1119 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$20 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$18 · open −$5
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$766
Realized−$18
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses789 / 301
Open positions29
Markets (closed)1090 / 1119
History coverage57d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day60.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 29 History 1090 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$33
7 days+$73
14 days+$142
30 days+$163
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 14? No 93¢ 98¢ $57 $60 +$3 (+6%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 10°C on June 14? No 94¢ 96¢ $45 $46 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 14? No 94¢ 95¢ $44 $45 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 15? No 92¢ 86¢ $42 $40 −$3 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 14? No 91¢ 92¢ $37 $37 +$0 (+1%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 11°C on June 14? No 88¢ 80¢ $40 $36 −$3 (-9%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 14? No 91¢ 96¢ $33 $34 +$2 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 14? No 86¢ 84¢ $35 $34 −$1 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 13? No 90¢ 88¢ $34 $34 −$1 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C or higher on June 15? No 93¢ 98¢ $31 $32 +$1 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 15? No 89¢ 88¢ $31 $31 −$1 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 14? No 91¢ 84¢ $33 $30 −$2 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 15? No 94¢ 97¢ $29 $30 +$1 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 13? No 94¢ 96¢ $27 $28 +$1 (+2%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 14? No 94¢ 79¢ $33 $28 −$5 (-16%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 15? No 94¢ 98¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 14? No 93¢ 97¢ $24 $25 +$1 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 14? No 94¢ 96¢ $21 $21 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 13? No 87¢ 99¢ $18 $21 +$2 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 14? No 86¢ 75¢ $23 $20 −$3 (-13%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 13? No 93¢ 80¢ $21 $18 −$3 (-14%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 13? No 89¢ 94¢ $17 $18 +$1 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 13? No 91¢ 97¢ $16 $18 +$1 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 14? No 94¢ 96¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on June 14? No 88¢ 88¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 14? Jun 13 $25 +$1 +5%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 13°C on June 13? Jun 13 $15 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 13? Jun 13 $15 +$2 +12%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 12°C on June 13? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 13? Jun 12 $28 −$6 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on June 13? Jun 12 $21 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $16 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 12 $16 −$1 -5%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 12 $30 −$10 -33%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 12 $32 −$2 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $21 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $38 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $29 +$2 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $16 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C or higher on June 13? Jun 12 $51 +$3 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on June 12? Jun 12 $21 +$3 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $17 +$2 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C on June 12? Jun 12 $16 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 11? Jun 12 $18 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $16 +$3 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $50 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 13? Jun 12 $45 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $27 +$2 +8%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 80°F or higher on June Jun 12 $35 −$5 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $19 +$1 +6%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 12? Jun 11 $11 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 12? Jun 11 $45 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 11 $28 +$6 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 12? Jun 11 $15 −$1 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $16 +$2 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 12? Jun 11 $26 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 35°C on June 11? Jun 11 $49 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $36 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $36 +$6 +17%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on June 11? Jun 11 $82 +$5 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $16 −$4 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 12? Jun 11 $29 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C or higher on June 12? Jun 11 $46 +$3 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 40°C on June 12? Jun 11 $23 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $15 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $16 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $36 +$3 +9%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 11? Jun 10 $15 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 33°C on June 11? Jun 10 $5 $0 -8%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 11? Jun 10 $19 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $17 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 10? Jun 10 $42 +$2 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 94¢ $15 5m
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 28°C on June 14? SELL No 99¢ $16 44m
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 14? BUY No 94¢ $21 49m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C or higher on June 15? BUY No 93¢ $4 49m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C or higher on June 15? BUY No 93¢ $14 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C or higher on June 15? BUY No 93¢ $14 1h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 14? BUY No 86¢ $35 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 13? BUY No 90¢ $34 1h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 14? SELL No 99¢ $0 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 13°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 13? SELL No 99¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 14? SELL No 99¢ $26 2h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 15? BUY No 94¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 15? BUY No 89¢ $31 2h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 15? BUY No 94¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 15? BUY No 93¢ $7 2h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 15? BUY No 94¢ $16 3h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 92¢ $42 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 13°C on June 13? SELL No 99¢ $16 3h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 15? BUY No 94¢ $9 3h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 94¢ $44 3h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 15? BUY No 94¢ $17 3h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 14? BUY No 91¢ $37 4h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 14? BUY No 94¢ $33 5h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY No 88¢ $16 5h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 14? BUY No 91¢ $33 6h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 14? BUY No 93¢ $40 6h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 14? BUY No 94¢ $17 6h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 94¢ $16 6h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 14? BUY No 94¢ $25 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 171 +2.4% -7.4% 81% 15% -8.1%
≤30d 664 -2.1% -11.4% 72% 23% -8.3%
≤90d 1090 -1.6% -10.9% 72% 19% -9.6%
all 1090 -1.6% -10.9% 72% 19% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover60.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.9% 19% -9.6%
10% ← realistic here -19.5% 1% -18.2%
15% -27.3% 0% -26.1%
20% -34.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $766.41 · official $766.01 (match) · 3500 history records