Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T03:35:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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0xad42…588e
crypto · 63 markets active 2h ago
1.5score
−$137 -11%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$141 · open +$4
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$22
Realized−$141
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses25 / 35
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)60 / 63
History coverage130d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%
Chart Positions 3 History 60 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$9
14 days+$9
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 63¢ 100¢ $14 $22 +$8 (+59%)
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June 12? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 2026? No 38¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Up 10¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Down 30¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - February 6, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 7 to February 9, 2026? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $177 $0 −$177 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Up 34¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Down 26¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Up 36¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Down 71¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - February 4, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Up 19¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - February 6, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Down 27¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Down 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 2026? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Down 47¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $15 +$5 +31%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $9 −$2 -22%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $4 +$8 +188%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 202 Feb 21 $5 +$3 +61%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 20 Feb 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 20 Feb 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Feb 21 $6 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Feb 21 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Feb 21 $1 +$2 +197%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Feb 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Feb 21 $7 −$7 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Feb 21 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Feb 21 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Feb 21 $3 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Feb 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Feb 21 $1 $0 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Feb 21 $1 +$6 +556%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Feb 21 $1 −$1 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Feb 21 $2 +$3 +125%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Feb 21 $9 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Feb 20 $2 −$1 -61%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 14 to February 16, 2026? Feb 15 $8 −$7 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Feb 15 $5 −$4 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Feb 15 $2 −$1 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Feb 15 $1 −$1 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Feb 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Feb 15 $1 $0 +48%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 14 to February 16, 2026 Feb 15 $11 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Feb 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Feb 14 $1 +$1 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Feb 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Feb 14 $2 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Feb 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Feb 13 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Feb 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Feb 13 $5 +$11 +213%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 7 to February 9, 2026? Feb 08 $177 −$177 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026? Feb 07 $150 +$26 +18%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026? Feb 07 $113 +$37 +33%
Solana Up or Down - February 6, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Feb 06 $42 −$34 -81%
Solana Up or Down - February 6, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Feb 06 $40 +$3 +7%
Solana Up or Down - February 6, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Feb 06 $39 +$1 +2%
Solana Up or Down - February 6, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Feb 06 $3 −$3 -98%
Solana Up or Down - February 6, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Feb 06 $37 −$23 -62%
Solana Up or Down - February 6, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Feb 06 $15 −$6 -42%
Solana Up or Down - February 6, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Feb 06 $10 +$12 +117%
Solana Up or Down - February 6, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Feb 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 6, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Feb 06 $10 +$8 +76%
Solana Up or Down - February 6, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Feb 06 $9 +$10 +104%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 74% −$63
crypto 25% −$74
sports 1% +$2
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 63¢ $14 1h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $14 6h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 63¢ $9 6h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 6h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 30¢ $7 6h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 7h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL No 68¢ $6 7h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY No 71¢ $6 8h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 8h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 8h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 8h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June BUY Yes 30¢ $1 23h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $12 23h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 34¢ $4 24h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 202 SELL No 100¢ $8 111d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 20 BUY No 38¢ $5 111d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 202 BUY No 62¢ $5 111d
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 20 BUY Yes 10¢ $1 111d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET SELL Down 47¢ $3 111d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 111d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $4 111d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $4 111d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 111d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 111d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $3 111d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 111d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 111d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $7 111d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $7 111d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 111d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +24.1% +12.3% 50% 50% +19.1%
≤30d 4 +24.1% +12.3% 50% 50% +19.1%
≤90d 4 +24.1% +12.3% 50% 50% +19.1%
all 60 -7.0% -15.8% 42% 35% -19.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.8% 35% -19.8%
10% -23.9% 27% -27.4%
15% -31.2% 22% -34.5%
20% -38.0% 18% -40.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.22 · official $22.22 (match) · 149 history records