Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:08:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AD 0xad42…b184 crypto 94 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (354 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$61 (-8%) realized −$59 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate38%35W / 58L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day353.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$157
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (354 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-23.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 93 -15.7% -23.7% 38% 32% -35.9%
≤30d 93 -15.7% -23.7% 38% 32% -35.9%
≤90d 93 -15.7% -23.7% 38% 32% -35.9%
all 93 -15.7% -23.7% 38% 32% -35.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover353.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.7% 32% -35.9%
10% ← realistic here -31.0% 27% -42.0%
15% -37.7% 20% -47.6%
20% -43.8% 17% -52.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -33% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$59
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses35 / 58
Open positions1
Markets (closed)93 / 94
History coverage1d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day353.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 93 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Up 32¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 65 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$2 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $19 +$7 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$3 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $8 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $41 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$3 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $29 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $8 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$2 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$14 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $23 −$9 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $22 −$10 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$2 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$5 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $18 −$3 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $2 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $2 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $6 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $7 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $6 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $2 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $3 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $2 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 86¢ $7 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $6 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $8 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $2 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $8 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $6 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $6 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $2 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $2 35m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.03 · official $1.84 · 405 history records