Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T01:23:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AD
0xad40…5f9c
sports · 1595 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$432 +5%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$441 · open −$9
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$39
Realized+$441
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses517 / 915
Est. fees paid−$132
Open positions21
Markets (closed)1432 / 1595
History coverage35d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day62.9
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit81%
Chart Positions 21 History 1432 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days−$859
14 days−$869
30 days+$412
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 58¢ 100¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+72%)
Dallas Wings vs. PortlandFire: O/U 171.5 Under 58¢ 80¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+39%)
Spread: Dallas Wings (-5.5) PortlandFire 59¢ 72¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+22%)
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 177.5 Under 56¢ 63¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+12%)
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 176.5 Under 58¢ 62¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+6%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 56¢ 57¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 59¢ 60¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 1.5 Over 59¢ 59¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Over 57¢ 57¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 0.5 Over 59¢ 58¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-14? No 57¢ 56¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-1.5) Los Angeles Sparks 56¢ 56¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 175.5 Under 59¢ 57¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Under 55¢ 54¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will CD Huachipato win on 2026-06-13? Yes 56¢ 54¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Over 58¢ 52¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-11%)
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 210.5 Over 49¢ 24¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 213.5 Over 57¢ 16¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-72%)
Notts County FC vs. Salford City FC: O/U 5.5 Over 4¢ 0¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-89%)
Notts County FC vs. Salford City FC: O/U 4.5 Over 9¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-95%)
Al Hazem SC vs. Al Taawoun Saudi Club: O/U 1.5 Under 35¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will El Ittihad SC El Iskandary win on 2026-05-18? Yes 33¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Connecticut Sun vs. Seattle Storm Seattle Storm 46¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will FK Lokomotiv Moskva win on 2026-05-17? Yes 44¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Indiana Fever (-11.5) Jun 14 $2 +$1 +66%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $4 +$3 +64%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $6 +$1 +12%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $2 +$1 +69%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5) Jun 13 $2 +$1 +72%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $2 +$1 +66%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5 Jun 13 $2 +$2 +87%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5 Jun 13 $2 +$2 +84%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $2 +$1 +63%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $2 +$1 +69%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $2 +$1 +60%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $4 −$1 -17%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $2 +$1 +69%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 6.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $2 +$1 +72%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $2 +$1 +69%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-3.5) Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Will FC Lahti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 +$1 +65%
FC Lahti vs. Seinajoen JK: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $2 +$2 +74%
IFK Mariehamn vs. IF Gnistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $2 +$2 +75%
Will HJK Helsinki win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 +$1 +66%
Will Kuopion Palloseura win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +74%
Vaasan Palloseura vs. Kuopion Palloseura: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $2 +$2 +74%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 13 $4 −$2 -49%
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5) Jun 13 $2 +$1 +66%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $2 +$1 +65%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 Jun 13 $2 +$2 +97%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-8.5) Jun 13 $2 +$1 +71%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 156.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $2 +$1 +68%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-9.5) Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $2 +$1 +66%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire: O/U 173.5 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5 Jun 11 $2 +$2 +84%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5 Jun 11 $2 +$2 +89%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $2 +$1 +69%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-4.5) Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) Jun 11 $2 +$2 +81%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $2 +$1 +69%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 79% +$685
other 20% −$195
weather 1% −$58
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 175.5 BUY Under 59¢ $2 3m
Will CD Huachipato win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 56¢ $2 12m
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 210.5 BUY Over 49¢ $2 38m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 100¢ $7 53m
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $7 53m
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $2 53m
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $2 56m
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 58¢ $2 1h
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 169.5 BUY Over 56¢ $2 1h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 176.5 BUY Under 58¢ $2 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 61¢ $2 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 57¢ $2 2h
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5 SELL Under 99¢ $3 2h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5 SELL Under 100¢ $4 2h
Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5) BUY Washington Nationals 57¢ $2 2h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $2 2h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $2 3h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 BUY Under 58¢ $2 3h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 59¢ $2 3h
Dallas Wings vs. PortlandFire: O/U 171.5 BUY Under 58¢ $2 3h
Spread: Dallas Wings (-5.5) BUY PortlandFire 59¢ $2 3h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 55¢ $2 3h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 60¢ $2 3h
Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5) BUY Baltimore Orioles 57¢ $2 4h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 57¢ $2 4h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 52¢ $2 5h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 53¢ $2 5h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 59¢ $2 5h
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Qatar 61¢ $2 5h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $2 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 301 -51.3% -55.9% 23% 22% -61.0%
≤30d 1280 +3.9% -6.0% 36% 35% -3.7%
≤90d 1432 +4.1% -5.8% 36% 35% -4.0%
all 1432 +4.1% -5.8% 36% 35% -4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover62.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.8% 35% -4.0%
10% ← realistic here -14.8% 34% -13.2%
15% -23.0% 34% -21.6%
20% -30.6% 33% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.97 · official $38.97 (match) · 2619 history records