Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:46:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AD 0xad3f…932f world 95 markets active 1h ago coverage 335d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$18 (+0%) realized +$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate24%22W / 70L
Drawdown62%max
Avg bet$150per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$7
14 days−$8
30 days+$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% +$23
other 23% −$1
politics 18% −$2
sports 11% −$2
crypto 2% $0
economics 2% $0
tech 1% $0
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.6% -9.0% 62% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 29 -0.9% -10.4% 41% 3% -9.0%
≤90d 81 -0.7% -10.1% 26% 2% -9.4%
all 92 -0.7% -10.1% 24% 2% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 2% -9.4%
10% -18.7% 1% -18.1%
15% -26.6% 1% -26.0%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×2.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

335d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses22 / 70
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions3
Markets (closed)92 / 95
History coverage335d
Avg bet$150
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 92 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 76¢ 76¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 9¢ 36¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+294%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 47¢ 56¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $181 +$3 +1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $11 −$1 -5%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $164 +$1 +1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $114 −$3 -3%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $67 +$2 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 12 $161 +$4 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 11 $182 −$6 -3%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $84 +$7 +8%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 10 $267 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $12 −$11 -89%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $268 −$2 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $402 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $194 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $255 −$1 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $176 −$1 -0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 06 $177 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 04 $144 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $31 +$1 +4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $6 $0 +7%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 30 $600 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 28 $94 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 25 $246 −$6 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 23 $66 +$30 +46%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 21 $220 +$14 +6%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $141 −$1 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 21 $34 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 20 $142 −$5 -3%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? May 20 $284 +$1 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 19 $143 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 16 $153 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $154 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $449 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $281 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $295 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $576 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 26 $34 +$1 +2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 25 $444 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 25 $295 −$1 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $157 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $154 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 20 $141 −$1 -0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 20 $297 $0 +0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $231 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $140 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $281 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $6 $0 +6%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 14 $26 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 14 $22 $0 -2%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $298 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $155 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 70¢ $184 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $181 2h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $9 19h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 19h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 19h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 19h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 19h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $166 44h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $164 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 27¢ $82 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 28¢ $37 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 28¢ $46 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $69 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $63 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $4 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $22 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $7 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 68¢ $29 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 83¢ $165 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 81¢ $161 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 32¢ $176 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 33¢ $182 6d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $47 6d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $47 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $93 7d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $93 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY Yes 2¢ $12 7d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 73¢ $175 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.08 · official $0.00 · 422 history records