Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T02:59:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AD 0xad3f…0228 other 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 11d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$39 (-1%) realized −$102 · open +$63
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -75% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -80% what you keep after slip
Net edge-80%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate12%1W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$159per market
Trades / day8.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit9%portable
Net worth$3,194now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 11d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 99% −$54
sports 1% −$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-77.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -75.4% -77.8% 12% 12% -41.1%
≤30d 8 -75.4% -77.8% 12% 12% -41.1%
≤90d 8 -75.4% -77.8% 12% 12% -41.1%
all 8 -75.4% -77.8% 12% 12% -41.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -77.8% 12% -41.1%
10% -79.9% 0% -46.7%
15% -81.8% 0% -51.9%
20% -83.6% 0% -56.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -35% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -75% · $-wt -35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$24 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$3,194
Realized−$102
Unrealized+$63
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses1 / 7
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions26
Markets (closed)8 / 34
History coverage11d
Avg bet$159
Trades / day8.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit9%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 26 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $796 $819 +$23 (+3%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 13¢ $489 $502 +$14 (+3%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 3¢ $170 $394 +$224 (+132%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $346 $383 +$37 (+11%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $200 $244 +$44 (+22%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $129 $171 +$41 (+32%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $133 $129 −$4 (-3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $114 $97 −$17 (-15%)
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $86 $64 −$22 (-25%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $76 $62 −$14 (-18%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $87 $58 −$29 (-33%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $77 $53 −$24 (-32%)
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $60 $45 −$15 (-25%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $40 $31 −$9 (-23%)
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $50 $25 −$25 (-50%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $45 $19 −$26 (-58%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $73 $19 −$55 (-75%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $23 $18 −$6 (-25%)
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $30 $15 −$15 (-50%)
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $20 $10 −$10 (-50%)
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $20 $10 −$10 (-50%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $31 $8 −$23 (-75%)
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $21 −$10 -50%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $104 +$18 +18%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $206 −$43 -21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 8¢ $9 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $51 1h
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $51 1h
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $21 1h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $21 1h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $103 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $263 1h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $122 1h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $34 2h
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 2h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 2h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $15 2h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $40 2h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 27h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $209 27h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $210 27h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 27h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $10 27h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $58 28h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $57 28h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 1.5 BUY Over 43¢ $15 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 2.5 BUY Over 18¢ $10 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 2d
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 9¢ $10 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 2d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $20 2d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $21 2d
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $6 2d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $41 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,193.62 · official $3,195.50 (match) · 115 history records