Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:53:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AD 0xad3d…24e5 sports 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (89 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$44 (+3%) realized +$65 · open −$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%8W / 7L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$86per market
Trades / day89.3pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 62% −$79
sports 25% +$165
other 13% +$160
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (89 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+0.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +11.1% +0.5% 53% 53% +5.5%
≤30d 15 +11.1% +0.5% 53% 53% +5.5%
≤90d 15 +11.1% +0.5% 53% 53% +5.5%
all 15 +11.1% +0.5% 53% 53% +5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover89.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +0.5% 53% +5.5%
10% ← realistic here -9.1% 40% -4.6%
15% -17.9% 40% -13.8%
20% -25.9% 33% -22.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 50% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +43% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$60 vs −$31 · ×1.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.24 per $1 lost it wins $2.24
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized+$65
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses8 / 7
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions2
Markets (closed)15 / 20
History coverage1d
Avg bet$86
Trades / day89.3
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $40 $48 +$8 (+20%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Yes 34¢ 10¢ $40 $11 −$29 (-72%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $19 −$8 -44%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 17 $260 +$41 +16%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 17 $773 −$128 -16%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $81 +$15 +18%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $72 +$178 +250%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $17 −$17 -98%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $31 +$55 +180%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $71 +$48 +67%
Spread: Norway (-3.5) Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $56 +$50 +88%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $101 +$63 +62%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $67 +$33 +50%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $37 −$18 -48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY 4¢ $3 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY 11¢ $5 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 34¢ $41 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 3¢ $7 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 37¢ $59 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 37¢ $1 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 37¢ $241 3h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL No 51¢ $383 4h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 51¢ $5 4h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 32¢ $29 4h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 32¢ $94 4h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 4h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 32¢ $128 4h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 4h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 53¢ $37 4h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 53¢ $2 4h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 53¢ $2 4h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 53¢ $2 4h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 53¢ $2 4h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 53¢ $2 4h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 53¢ $2 4h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 53¢ $2 4h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 53¢ $2 4h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 53¢ $2 4h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 53¢ $1 4h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 53¢ $21 4h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 55¢ $110 4h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 55¢ $203 4h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 55¢ $6 4h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 55¢ $6 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.51 · official $67.51 · 108 history records