Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:20:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
AD 0xad37…dbd6 other 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 34d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$753 (+51%) realized +$761 · open −$8
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate24%4W / 13L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit37%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$48
7 days−$48
14 days+$38
30 days+$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% +$524
sports 43% +$179
crypto 2% −$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-20.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 11 -45.4% -50.6% 9% 9% -6.3%
≤90d 17 -12.2% -20.6% 24% 18% +33.9%
all 17 -12.2% -20.6% 24% 18% +33.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.6% 18% +33.9%
10% -28.2% 12% +21.1%
15% -35.1% 12% +9.4%
20% -41.5% 6% -1.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +48% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +48% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +33% → late -52% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$220 vs −$15 · ×14.31 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.4 per $1 lost it wins $4.4
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized+$761
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses4 / 13
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions2
Markets (closed)17 / 19
History coverage34d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit37%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $26 $25 −$1 (-3%)
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? Yes 13¢ $25 $17 −$8 (-31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $14 −$13 -98%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $15 −$14 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 06 $41 −$27 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 06 $33 −$32 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $472 +$229 +48%
Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $49 −$6 -11%
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $107 −$22 -20%
Will Ivory Coast advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 05 $108 −$25 -23%
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 05 $114 −$24 -21%
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 05 $113 −$8 -7%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Fulham FC end in a draw? May 17 $25 +$1 +4%
Will Brentford FC vs. Crystal Palace FC end in a draw? May 17 $34 −$8 -23%
Will Leeds United FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC end in a draw? May 17 $40 −$1 -4%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $10 $0 -2%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $10 +$1 +12%
Will Finland be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $214 +$649 +303%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 15¢ $26 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 13¢ $25 1h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 11¢ $20 13h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 16¢ $14 24h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $15 24h
Will Belgium vs. Tunisia end in a draw? SELL Yes $14 13d
Will Belgium vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $41 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $5 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $2 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $26 13d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 55¢ $30 13d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 50¢ $646 13d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 33¢ $442 13d
Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 14¢ $44 13d
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 15¢ $85 13d
Will Ivory Coast advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL No 19¢ $83 13d
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL No 27¢ $90 13d
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 29¢ $105 13d
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 33¢ $114 13d
Will Ivory Coast advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 24¢ $96 13d
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 30¢ $113 13d
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 18¢ $107 13d
Will Ivory Coast advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 23¢ $12 13d
Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 15¢ $49 13d
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Fulham FC end in a draw? SELL Yes 38¢ $26 33d
Will Brentford FC vs. Crystal Palace FC end in a draw? SELL Yes 27¢ $26 33d
Will Leeds United FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC end in a draw? SELL Yes 39¢ $38 33d
Will Brentford FC vs. Crystal Palace FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $12 33d
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Fulham FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $25 33d
Will Leeds United FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 39¢ $40 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.75 · official $42.70 (match) · 50 history records