Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:23:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
AD 0xad32…3c34 other 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$56 (+29%) realized +$56 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate53%10W / 9L
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$45
7 days+$54
14 days+$54
30 days+$54
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% +$79
sports 13% −$24
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-22.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -15.2% -23.2% 50% 50% +19.7%
≤30d 19 -14.4% -22.5% 53% 47% +19.5%
≤90d 19 -14.4% -22.5% 53% 47% +19.5%
all 19 -14.4% -22.5% 53% 47% +19.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.5% 47% +19.5%
10% -29.9% 47% +8.1%
15% -36.7% 42% -2.4%
20% -42.9% 26% -11.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 49% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +32% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +32% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late -46% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$4 · ×2.19 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.44 per $1 lost it wins $2.44
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized+$56
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses10 / 9
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)19 / 20
History coverage8d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $19 +$28 +146%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $37 +$17 +46%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $24 +$12 +48%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $21 +$10 +48%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 +$7 +65%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $3 +$2 +57%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$15 +146%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $4 +$2 +50%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +23%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Jun 16 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $25 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 40¢ $19 18h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $37 26h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $24 2d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 2d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 69¢ $16 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 3d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $12 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $3 5d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $1 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $2 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $2 6d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 6d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 6d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 6d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 6d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 6d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 6d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 6d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 7d
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 7d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.19 · official $25.19 (match) · 45 history records